Buenos Aires Argentina Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Pedro Martinez: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Rank: #85
51%
VS

Pedro Martinez

Rank: #77
49%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Ranking Trends

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

  • Current Rank: #85 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #84 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #86 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #115 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #139 (2025-02-10)

Pedro Martinez

  • Current Rank: #77 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #93 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #66 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #49 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #41 (2025-02-10)

Player Metrics

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Form Index: 32.2
ELO Rating: 675.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1543.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 87.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.0
Clay: 7.7
Grass: 4.9
Serve Rating: 70.5
Return Rating: 76.3

Pedro Martinez

Form Index: 21.7
ELO Rating: 634.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1619.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 95.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.7
Clay: 6.6
Grass: 6.0
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 91.6

Recent Matches

Juan Manuel Cerundolo
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 87 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jordan Thompson (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Eliot Spizzirri (0-2) hard Auckland 87 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Shintaro Mochizuki (2-1) hard Auckland 168 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Yunchaokete Bu (1-2) hard Shanghai 172 min

Pedro Martinez
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Lautaro Midon (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 95 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Adrian Mannarino (0-2) hard Montpellier 96 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Novak Djokovic (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (0-2) hard Paris 95 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Kamil Majchrzak (0-2) hard Basel 109 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
vs
0
Pedro Martinez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 clash in Buenos Aires is a clay-court encounter at a 250-level event in Argentina. The model gives Juan Manuel Cerundolo a narrow edge: predicted winner Juan Manuel Cerundolo 51.34% vs Pedro Martinez 48.66%, with an expected total of about 21.96 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Cerundolo (rank 85) enters with a higher form index (32.16) and a superior Elo (675.13) compared with Martinez (rank 77, form 21.75, Elo 634.72). Cerundolo has recorded 87 minutes on court in this event so far; Martinez has slightly more cumulative fatigue at 95 minutes. Both show modest surface strength indices on clay (Cerundolo 7.66, Martinez 6.56), indicating neither has an overwhelming clay advantage in the proprietary metric. There is a marked difference in serving and returning metrics. Martinez’s mean serve index (96.79) is substantially higher than Cerundolo’s (70.49) — a gap well over 5 points — and his mean return index (91.57) also exceeds Cerundolo’s (76.29) by more than 5 points. Recent form narratives: Cerundolo won his last match in Buenos Aires (2-0 over Daniel Altmaier) but had back-to-back hard-court defeats beforehand. Martinez likewise won his Buenos Aires opener (2-0 over Lautaro Midon) but was beaten by Adrian Mannarino and Novak Djokovic in prior hard-court events. Both players show a win in the tournament and two losses earlier on hard courts in their last three outings.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.0 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 16.46 total (predicted aces), while the double faults prediction sits at 5.44 (expected double faults). On clay, lower ace totals are typical because slower speed and higher bounce reduce free points; this supports a restrained aces prediction. Martinez’s significantly higher serve rating could still inflate the ace count compared with a baseline clay match, even as fatigue may contribute to the expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.5 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.4 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cerundolo’s slightly better Elo and current form give him a narrow projected edge in a tight matchup. The key factor to watch is the serve/return battle — Martinez’s big-serve profile versus Cerundolo’s stronger return metrics — and how fatigue affects serve consistency late in the match.

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