Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Quentin Halys vs Liam Draxl: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Quentin Halys

Rank: #111
57%
VS

Liam Draxl

Rank: #147
43%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Quentin Halys

Player Metrics

Quentin Halys

Form Index: 36.9
ELO Rating: 779.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1593.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.6
Clay: 6.7
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 88.6
Return Rating: 36.1

Liam Draxl

Form Index: 51.1
ELO Rating: 526.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1530.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 305.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.2
Clay: 3.8
Grass: 3.6
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 90.6

Recent Matches

Quentin Halys

  • Last Match: vs Adam Walton (0-2) hard Indian Wells 77 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jack Draper (0-2) hard Dubai 97 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Alexander Shevchenko (2-0) hard Dubai 101 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Christopher O'Connell (2-0) hard Dubai 76 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Arthur Fils (0-2) hard Doha 89 min

Liam Draxl

  • Last Match: vs Jay Clarke (2-1) hard Miami 156 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Cristian Garin (2-1) hard Miami 149 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Ignacio Buse (0-2) hard Indian Wells 120 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Zachary Svajda (0-2) hard Delray Beach 67 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Mackenzie McDonald (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Quentin Halys
vs
0
Liam Draxl
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Miami Masters 1000 in Florida, Quentin Halys and Liam Draxl meet in the Round of 128 on hard court. The model favors Quentin Halys to advance (56.92% chance) over Liam Draxl (43.08%), with a predicted total of about 23.95 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Halys arrives with the higher ranking (No. 111) and a substantially higher Elo (779.76) than Draxl (Elo 526.92), and he shows zero accumulated fatigue from this event. His form index is modest at 36.87 and his surface strength index is 4.63. Draxl, ranked 147, carries heavy minutes into Miami (305 minutes of fatigue), but posts a stronger short-term form index (51.12) and a surface strength index of 4.18. The serving matchup is notable: Draxl’s mean serve index (95.99) is more than 5 points higher than Halys’s (88.60), and his mean return index (90.59) dwarfs Halys’s return figure (36.11) by an even wider margin — both differences are meaningful and worth watching. Recent results underline contrasting trajectories. Halys has won one of his last three matches (a straight-sets win over Alexander Shevchenko) but followed with defeats to Jack Draper and Adam Walton at hard-court events. Draxl has two straight wins at Miami — over Cristian Garin and Jay Clarke, both long matches — and a prior loss at Indian Wells to Ignacio Buse. The combination of Draxl’s match rhythm and heavy court time versus Halys’s fresher legs and higher overall Elo creates a close contest.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 10.28 total, while the expected double faults sit at roughly 3.75. On Miami’s medium-paced hard courts, these predicted aces align with a surface that produces a moderate number of free points — not as many as grass but more than clay. With Draxl’s significantly higher serve rating, he should be the primary driver of the predicted aces total; serve pressure may also elevate the expected double faults if rallies are shortened.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.3 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 3.8 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Halys’s edge comes from a superior Elo and fresher legs, which the model weighs against Draxl’s recent wins and stronger serve/return metrics. The key factor to watch is whether Draxl’s heavier court load blunts the potency of his serve and return; if it does, Halys’s greater freshness could decide the tight margins.

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