Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Sebastian Korda vs Francisco Comesana: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Sebastian Korda

Rank: #40
64%
VS

Francisco Comesana

Rank: #82
36%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Sebastian Korda

Ranking Trends

Sebastian Korda

  • Current Rank: #40 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #48 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #75 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #23 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #25 (2025-03-03)

Francisco Comesana

  • Current Rank: #82 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #67 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #54 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #64 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #66 (2025-03-03)

Player Metrics

Sebastian Korda

Form Index: 58.5
ELO Rating: 1355.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1722.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.6
Clay: 9.2
Grass: 9.1
Serve Rating: 79.8
Return Rating: 32.2

Francisco Comesana

Form Index: 32.7
ELO Rating: 754.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1559.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.7
Clay: 7.6
Grass: 7.1
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 91.6

Recent Matches

Sebastian Korda
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tommy Paul (2-0) hard Delray Beach 82 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Flavio Cobolli (2-0) hard Delray Beach 76 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Casper Ruud (2-1) hard Delray Beach 126 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Michelsen (2-0) hard Delray Beach 106 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Mackenzie McDonald (2-0) hard Delray Beach 88 min

Francisco Comesana
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Andrea Pellegrino (1-2) clay Santiago 171 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Pedro Martinez (2-1) clay Santiago 171 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1-2) clay Rio 156 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 125 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Sebastian Korda
vs
0
Francisco Comesana
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells (California), in the Round of 128 on hard courts at a Masters 1000 event, Sebastian Korda is favored to progress. The model gives Korda a 63.65% chance to win against Francisco Comesana, who has a 36.35% probability, with an expected total of about 23.6 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Korda arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 40) with a substantially higher Elo (1355.26) and a stronger form index (58.51) than Comesana (rank 82, Elo 754.40, form 32.67). Both players show zero cumulative fatigue in this tournament so freshness is not a factor. Surface strength indices are similar and low (Korda 8.58, Comesana 7.72), suggesting neither has a pronounced hard-court specialty in the proprietary metric. Serve and return profiles diverge sharply. Comesana posts a mean serve index of 98.25 versus Korda’s 79.85 — a difference greater than 5 points that favors Comesana’s raw serve numbers. On returns the split is even more pronounced: Comesana’s mean return index sits at 91.56 against Korda’s 32.19, another gulf exceeding 5 points that could tilt short exchanges. Recent form-wise, Korda brings strong hard-court momentum from Delray Beach, winning his last three matches (including wins over Tommy Paul, Flavio Cobolli and Casper Ruud) with match times indicating durability and match-play rhythm. Comesana’s recent results come on clay: a win over Pedro Martinez in Santiago bookended by losses to Andrea Pellegrino and Tomas Martin Etcheverry, with long three-set affairs suggesting fight but less recent hard-court exposure.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 12.95 total, and the expected double faults are roughly 4.17. On medium-paced hard courts, predicted aces are moderate — more than clay but fewer than grass — and expected double faults reflect some risk when players push on serve. With Comesana’s markedly higher mean serve index, predicted aces could skew toward him, while Korda’s solid serve profile also contributes to the overall count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.9 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.2 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Korda’s higher ranking, superior Elo and stronger recent hard-court form give him the edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be how Korda handles Comesana’s powerful serve and elite return-index metrics; that battle on serve and return effectiveness should decide the match.

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