Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Arthur Gea vs Stan Wawrinka: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Arthur Gea

Rank: #197
52%
VS

Stan Wawrinka

Rank: #139
48%
Expected Total Games: 37.2
Predicted Winner: Arthur Gea

Ranking Trends

Arthur Gea

  • Current Rank: #197 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #236 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #278 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #314 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #383 (2025-01-13)

Stan Wawrinka

  • Current Rank: #139 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #158 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #156 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #158 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #156 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Arthur Gea

Form Index: 100.0
ELO Rating: 472.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1528.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.0
Clay: 1.4
Grass: 1.1
Serve Rating: 29.5
Return Rating: 49.7

Stan Wawrinka

Form Index: 54.8
ELO Rating: 449.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1540.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.8
Clay: 3.4
Grass: 3.5
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 94.5

Recent Matches

Arthur Gea
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jiri Lehecka (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Roman Andres Burruchaga (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Zdenek Kolar (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Titouan Droguet (1-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Stan Wawrinka
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Laslo Djere (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Casper Ruud (0-2) hard Basel 101 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-0) hard Basel 82 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Fabian Marozsan (1-2) hard Shanghai 106 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Damir Dzumhur (0-2) clay Umag 119 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Arthur Gea
vs
0
Stan Wawrinka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Arthur Gea and Stan Wawrinka in the Round of 64 at the Australian Open promises to be a thrilling contest on hard courts. With the match taking place in Australia, both players will look to capitalize on the opportunity to advance in this prestigious Grand Slam tournament. The predicted winner is Arthur Gea, with a probability of winning at 51.70%, while Wawrinka has a 48.30% chance. The expected total number of games in this match is 37.19.

Match Analysis

Arthur Gea currently holds a ranking of 197, while Stan Wawrinka is ranked higher at 139. Gea has shown impressive form with a form index of 100.0, indicating peak performance, contrasted by Wawrinka's form index of 54.81. In terms of Elo ratings, Gea stands at 472.66, slightly above Wawrinka's 449.72, showcasing a close competition. Fatigue levels differ significantly, with Gea exhibiting 696.0 minutes on court compared to Wawrinka's 174.0 minutes, which may impact their stamina during the match. The surface strength index reveals Gea with a score of 1.97, while Wawrinka boasts a higher index of 4.82, indicating Wawrinka's stronger adaptation to hard courts. Notably, Wawrinka's mean serve index of 97.04 is significantly higher than Gea's 29.48, a difference that may influence the dynamics of serve effectiveness. In their recent performances, Gea has demonstrated remarkable consistency by winning all of his last three matches at the Australian Open without dropping a set, showcasing his current form and confidence on court. In contrast, Wawrinka has a mixed record, winning two out of his last three matches, including a recent four-set victory, but also suffered a defeat against Casper Ruud in Basel. This inconsistency could play a crucial role as they face off.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.2 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature approximately 24.44 aces and 6.58 double faults. Given the medium-paced hard court surface, which generally provides balanced conditions for both serve and return, the predicted aces may lean towards Wawrinka due to his significant advantage in the mean serve index. This disparity suggests that Wawrinka could capitalize on his serving prowess, leading to a higher ace count, while the expected double faults prediction indicates both players may struggle with accuracy under pressure.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 24.4 Most likely: 24 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.6 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Arthur Gea's edge comes from his recent form and momentum, having not lost a set in his last three matches. However, Wawrinka's superior serving capabilities and experience in Grand Slams could lead to pivotal moments in the match. A key factor to watch will be how Gea manages to handle Wawrinka's powerful serves, particularly in crucial points.

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