Montpellier France Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Hamad Medjedovic vs Stan Wawrinka: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Hamad Medjedovic

Rank: #90
68%
VS

Stan Wawrinka

Rank: #139
32%
Expected Total Games: 22.7
Predicted Winner: Hamad Medjedovic

Player Metrics

Hamad Medjedovic

Form Index: 48.3
ELO Rating: 800.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1562.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.9
Clay: 7.2
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 81.8
Return Rating: 50.9

Stan Wawrinka

Form Index: 59.1
ELO Rating: 480.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1542.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.1
Clay: 3.4
Grass: 3.5
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 94.0

Recent Matches

Hamad Medjedovic

  • Last Match: vs Alex de Minaur (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Mariano Navone (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jakub Mensik (1-2) hard Auckland 134 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (2-1) hard Auckland 117 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Mattia Bellucci (2-0) hard Auckland 67 min

Stan Wawrinka

  • Last Match: vs Taylor Fritz (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Arthur Gea (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Laslo Djere (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Casper Ruud (0-2) hard Basel 101 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-0) hard Basel 82 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hamad Medjedovic
vs
0
Stan Wawrinka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Montpellier, France is a hard-court affair at an ATP 250 event between Hamad Medjedovic and Stan Wawrinka. The model favors Hamad Medjedovic to advance (68.19% win probability) over Stan Wawrinka (31.81%), with a predicted total of about 22.71 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Medjedovic arrives ranked 90 with an Elo of 800.41 and a form index of 48.31; his surface strength is modest and cumulative fatigue is zero. Wawrinka is ranked 139 with a lower Elo (480.70) but a higher form index (59.14) and also shows no tournament fatigue. The serving profiles diverge: Wawrinka’s mean serve index (96.83) exceeds Medjedovic’s (81.84) by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (93.99) is substantially higher than Medjedovic’s (50.95), a large margin that will influence dynamics on both serve and return games. Surface strength indices are similar and low for both players, so neither has a notable hard-court edge in the proprietary surface metric. Looking at recent form, Medjedovic’s last three matches on hard courts include a win over Mariano Navone and competitive losses to Jakub Mensik and Alex de Minaur, indicating resilience but mixed outcomes. Wawrinka’s recent sequence shows two wins followed by a loss to Taylor Fritz at the same hard-court stretch; his results indicate sharper immediate form despite lower ranking and Elo. Both players logged long matches at the Australian Open, but neither carries minutes-on-court fatigue into Montpellier.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.7 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 8.89 total and the predicted aces skew toward the player with the stronger serve profile. Given the expected total double faults of 6.37, the double faults prediction suggests breaks of serve could be relevant. On medium-paced hard courts, predicted aces are moderate compared with grass, and the expected double faults reflect the match-up pressure; Wawrinka’s significantly higher serve rating is likely to boost the ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Medjedovic’s higher Elo and current ranking underpin his projected edge despite Wawrinka’s superior serve and return indices. The key factor to watch is how Wawrinka’s serving and returning power translates into free points; if Medjedovic can neutralize those strengths early, his probability of closing the match increases.

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