Rotterdam Netherlands Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Tallon Griekspoor vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Tallon Griekspoor

Rank: #29
53%
VS

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Rank: #57
47%
Expected Total Games: 25.6
Predicted Winner: Tallon Griekspoor

Ranking Trends

Tallon Griekspoor

  • Current Rank: #29 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #25 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #32 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #35 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #42 (2025-02-10)

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

  • Current Rank: #57 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #59 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #42 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #36 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #30 (2025-02-10)

Player Metrics

Tallon Griekspoor

Form Index: 28.3
ELO Rating: 1315.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1620.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.1
Clay: 11.4
Grass: 12.6
Serve Rating: 88.8
Return Rating: 43.9

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Form Index: 19.3
ELO Rating: 912.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1657.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.5
Clay: 7.9
Grass: 7.2
Serve Rating: 99.9
Return Rating: 83.7

Recent Matches

Tallon Griekspoor
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Titouan Droguet (0-2) hard Montpellier 106 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Pablo Carreno Busta (2-0) hard Montpellier 66 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Ethan Quinn (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Ugo Humbert (0-2) hard Adelaide 78 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) hard Vienna 126 min

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Gea (0-1) hard Montpellier 39 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Baez (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (0-2) hard Auckland 65 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Cameron Norrie (2-1) hard Auckland 122 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) hard Auckland 96 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Tallon Griekspoor
vs
0
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rotterdam, Netherlands — Round of 32 on indoor hard courts at an ATP 500-level event. The model favors Tallon Griekspoor to advance, with a 52.86% chance of victory versus Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard at 47.14%. The match is projected to be relatively short by best-of-three standards: an expected total of 25.65 games.

Match Analysis

Griekspoor arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 29) with a substantially higher Elo (1315.49) and a stronger form index (28.34) than Perricard (rank 57, Elo 912.48, form 19.31). Neither player shows cumulative fatigue from this event (0 minutes on court). Surface strength indices are nearly identical (Griekspoor 8.09, Perricard 8.53), suggesting both profile similarly for indoor hard conditions. There is a notable difference in serving: Perricard’s mean serve index (99.87) beats Griekspoor’s (88.76) by over 11 points. Return profiles also diverge sharply — Perricard posts a much higher mean return index (83.74) against Griekspoor’s 43.86 — a gap that could shape the dynamics of the match. Recent form underlines inconsistency for both. Griekspoor is 1–2 in the last three outings, logging a solid win over Pablo Carreño Busta but heavy losses at the Australian Open and a recent straight-sets defeat in Montpellier. Perricard’s last three results show no wins in the set of matches provided, including a five-set loss at the Australian Open and quick exits in Auckland and Montpellier. Those outcomes imply vulnerability despite Perricard’s eye-catching serve and return indices.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.6 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this contest sits at 16.86 total, while the expected double faults total is 5.74. On a medium-paced hard court, predicted aces are moderate — the surface rewards both power and placement without inflating serve numbers as grass would. Given Perricard’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute disproportionately to the predicted aces; this also factors into the double faults prediction, where occasional risk on second serves could push the expected double faults figure.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Griekspoor’s higher ranking, Elo and steadier form give him a narrow edge in the projection. The key factor to watch is the serve-return interplay: Perricard’s superior serve and return indices versus Griekspoor’s overall match credentials will decide whether the match stays tight or tilts toward an upset.

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