Acapulco Mexico Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Terence Atmane vs Rafael Jodar: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Terence Atmane

Rank: #63
63%
VS

Rafael Jodar

Rank: #114
37%
Expected Total Games: 22.4
Predicted Winner: Terence Atmane

Ranking Trends

Terence Atmane

  • Current Rank: #63 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #64 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #69 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #121 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #157 (2025-02-24)

Rafael Jodar

  • Current Rank: #114 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #167 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #362 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #1000 (None)
  • 12 Months Ago: #903 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Terence Atmane

Form Index: 36.2
ELO Rating: 813.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1538.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 82.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.6
Clay: 5.3
Grass: 7.2
Serve Rating: 81.8
Return Rating: 68.5

Rafael Jodar

Form Index: 60.5
ELO Rating: 594.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1720.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 55.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.4
Clay: 3.2
Grass: 3.0
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 90.9

Recent Matches

Terence Atmane
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Grigor Dimitrov (2-0) hard Acapulco 82 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (0-2) hard Delray Beach 101 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Patrick Kypson (2-1) hard Delray Beach 103 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (1-2) hard Dallas 108 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Francesco Maestrelli (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Rafael Jodar
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Cameron Norrie (2-0) hard Acapulco 55 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (0-2) hard Delray Beach 106 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Ethan Quinn (2-0) hard Delray Beach 78 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Denis Shapovalov (0-2) hard Dallas 69 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Murphy Cassone (2-0) hard Dallas 101 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Terence Atmane
vs
0
Rafael Jodar
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 match in Acapulco (hard court, 500-level event in Mexico) pits Terence Atmane against Rafael Jodar. The model favors Terence Atmane to win with a 62.58% probability versus 37.42% for Jodar, and the predicted total number of games for the match is about 22.43.

Match Analysis

On paper Atmane presents the higher ranking (No. 63) and a substantially higher Elo (813.65) than Jodar (rank 114, Elo 594.15), factors that drive the predicted edge. However, Jodar shows a markedly stronger short-term form index (60.45) compared with Atmane (36.15), and Atmane arrives with greater accumulated fatigue in the event (82.0 minutes versus Jodar’s 55.0). Both players register modest surface strength indices on hard courts (Atmane 4.63, Jodar 5.43), indicating neither has a pronounced historical advantage on this surface. Serve and return profiles diverge: Jodar’s mean serve index (95.06) is significantly higher than Atmane’s (81.78), a difference greater than 5 points, and his mean return index (90.86) also substantially exceeds Atmane’s (68.47). Those gaps suggest Jodar can both hold serve more comfortably and create more break chances. Recent results are mixed: Atmane’s last three matches include wins over Grigor Dimitrov and Patrick Kypson and a loss to Flavio Cobolli; Jodar has wins over Cameron Norrie and Ethan Quinn and a loss to Taylor Fritz. Match durations show Jodar’s most recent Acapulco victory was quick (55 minutes), while Atmane’s recent matches have tended to be longer.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.4 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard-court match is elevated, with predicted aces totaling about 23.35 and an expected double faults tally near 6.58. Hard courts are medium-paced with a consistent bounce, supporting a moderate number of aces compared with grass or clay; the predicted aces reflect that balance. Given Jodar’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces, which could suppress return-dominated rallies. The expected double faults remain modest but non-negligible in a match with many free points on serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 23.4 Most likely: 24 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.6 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Atmane’s higher ranking and much stronger Elo rating are the primary reasons he is projected to prevail despite Jodar’s superior recent form and much stronger serve/return indices. The key factor to watch will be how Jodar’s serving power and returning ability translate into free points and breaks against an Atmane who carries more tournament fatigue.

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