Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Arthur Fery: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #61
55%
VS

Arthur Fery

Rank: #185
45%
Expected Total Games: 38.4
Predicted Winner: Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Ranking Trends

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Current Rank: #61 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #60 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #58 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #51 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #38 (2025-01-13)

Arthur Fery

  • Current Rank: #185 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #214 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #349 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #451 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #576 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 57.2
ELO Rating: 944.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1631.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.8
Clay: 8.0
Grass: 6.3
Serve Rating: 77.4
Return Rating: 66.5

Arthur Fery

Form Index: 95.7
ELO Rating: 521.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1520.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.9
Clay: 7.8
Grass: 11.1
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 93.5

Recent Matches

Tomas Martin Etcheverry
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Nuno Borges (1-2) hard Auckland 149 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (1-2) hard Hong Kong 161 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Royer (2-0) hard Hong Kong 104 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (0-2) hard Paris 114 min

Arthur Fery
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Flavio Cobolli (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Dino Prizmic (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Bernard Tomic (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Sonego (0-2) hard Stockholm 96 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jay Clarke (2-1) hard Stockholm 152 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
vs
0
Arthur Fery
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Arthur Fery at the 2026 Australian Open marks an intriguing contest in the round of 64 on hard courts. Based on current statistics, Tomas Martin Etcheverry is slightly favored to win, with a probability of 55.36%, while Arthur Fery holds a 44.64% chance. The predicted total number of games in this matchup is approximately 38.36.

Match Analysis

Tomas Martin Etcheverry is currently ranked 61st and has a form index of 57.24, alongside an Elo rating of 944.06. He faces some fatigue with 174 cumulative minutes spent on court during this tournament. His surface strength index is 6.82, indicating a moderate performance level on hard courts. Notably, Etcheverry’s mean serve index is 77.35, which could be a crucial factor in this match. On the other hand, Arthur Fery, ranked 185th, boasts an impressive form index of 95.71 and a significantly lower Elo rating of 521.87. However, he has accumulated more fatigue, totaling 522 minutes on court in this tournament, which may impact his stamina. Fery shines with a mean serve index of 95.46 and a mean return index of 93.53, both of which exceed Etcheverry’s by a considerable margin, particularly in serving effectiveness. Both players have recently shown contrasting performances. Etcheverry's last three matches include one victory against Miomir Kecmanovic and two losses against Nuno Borges and Lorenzo Musetti, indicating a mixed form. Conversely, Fery has been on a winning streak, claiming victories in all three of his last matches, including decisive wins against Flavio Cobolli and Dino Prizmic.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.4 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected aces in this match stand at approximately 10.95, while the predicted double faults are around 5.02. Given the hard court surface, which balances serve and return capabilities, these predictions align with the expectation of a moderate number of aces. Fery's superior mean serve index suggests he may lead the ace count, while both players' expected double faults indicate potential challenges with consistency.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.9 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.0 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tomas Martin Etcheverry's slight edge in the matchup stems from his overall ranking and experience, despite Fery's recent form and serving prowess. A key factor to monitor during the match will be how both players manage their fatigue levels, particularly Fery, as he faces a more demanding cumulative workload.

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