Rio Brazil Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Francisco Comesana: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #54
49%
VS

Francisco Comesana

Rank: #63
51%
Expected Total Games: 24.1
Predicted Winner: Francisco Comesana

Ranking Trends

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Current Rank: #54 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #60 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #58 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #55 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #43 (2025-02-17)

Francisco Comesana

  • Current Rank: #63 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #61 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #54 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #64 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #86 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 49.4
ELO Rating: 963.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1636.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.9
Clay: 8.2
Grass: 7.1
Serve Rating: 76.8
Return Rating: 56.5

Francisco Comesana

Form Index: 33.3
ELO Rating: 785.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1562.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.7
Clay: 7.9
Grass: 7.1
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 91.6

Recent Matches

Tomas Martin Etcheverry
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 111 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Tabilo (2-1) clay Buenos Aires 126 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Roman Andres Burruchaga (2-1) clay Buenos Aires 217 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Andrea Pellegrino (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 98 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Francisco Comesana
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 125 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Patrick Kypson (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Auckland 102 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Royer (2-0) hard Auckland 80 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
vs
0
Francisco Comesana
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Rio, Brazil — a 500-level clay event — pits Tomas Martin Etcheverry against Francisco Comesana on a slow, high-bounce surface. The model narrowly favors Francisco Comesana (51.00%) over Tomas Martin Etcheverry (49.00%), with a predicted total of 24.05 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Etcheverry arrives ranked 54 with a higher Elo (963.82) and a stronger recent form index (49.38) compared with Comesana, ranked 63 with an Elo of 785.12 and a form index of 33.33. Both players report no tournament fatigue and have low surface-strength indices (Etcheverry 8.17, Comesana 7.88), indicating neither has a pronounced clay-specialist profile in the provided metrics. The mean serve index difference is notable: Comesana’s 98.21 versus Etcheverry’s 76.78 (a gap >5 points), and the mean return indices diverge strongly as well (Comesana 91.61 vs Etcheverry 56.48), which suggests Comesana’s serve and return metrics stand out in the model. Looking at recent results, Etcheverry has two wins and a loss in his last three matches, most recently falling to Francisco Cerundolo on clay after long matches in Buenos Aires. Comesana’s last three include one win (a hard-court victory) and two straight losses, most recently in Buenos Aires; his recent matches include extended contests on both clay and hard. These patterns show Etcheverry with slightly better recent form, while Comesana’s serve/return indices lift his profile in the matchup.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.1 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match is modest: the model’s predicted aces total is 10.28 for the match. Clay tends to reduce aces due to slower ball speed and higher bounce, and the expected double faults figure is 3.75, so the double faults prediction reflects a modest number given the surface and match length. Comesana’s significantly higher serve rating is likely to push the predicted aces upward relative to Etcheverry, even on clay.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.3 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.8 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Comesana’s edge comes from superior serve and return indices in the model, despite Etcheverry’s higher rank, Elo and better recent form. Key factor to watch: whether Comesana’s powerful serve can translate into more free points on clay and offset Etcheverry’s steadier baseline game.

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