Montpellier France Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Ugo Humbert vs Botic van de Zandschulp: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Ugo Humbert

Rank: #33
55%
VS

Botic van de Zandschulp

Rank: #75
45%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Ugo Humbert

Player Metrics

Ugo Humbert

Form Index: 34.0
ELO Rating: 1467.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1769.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.0
Clay: 8.9
Grass: 9.4
Serve Rating: 77.2
Return Rating: 45.3

Botic van de Zandschulp

Form Index: 62.3
ELO Rating: 889.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1577.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.3
Clay: 5.9
Grass: 6.5
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 96.3

Recent Matches

Ugo Humbert

  • Last Match: vs Ben Shelton (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Tomas Machac (1-2) hard Adelaide 143 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-1) hard Adelaide 152 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alexander Shevchenko (1-0) hard Adelaide 57 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Tallon Griekspoor (2-0) hard Adelaide 78 min

Botic van de Zandschulp

  • Last Match: vs Novak Djokovic (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Juncheng Shang (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Brandon Nakashima (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alexander Bublik (0-2) hard Hong Kong 70 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Jan-Lennard Struff (2-1) hard Hong Kong 94 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ugo Humbert
vs
0
Botic van de Zandschulp
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Montpellier, France, the round of 32 on indoor hard courts at this atp_250 event pits Ugo Humbert against Botic van de Zandschulp. The model gives Humbert the edge: predicted winner Ugo Humbert (54.62%) vs Botic van de Zandschulp (45.38%), with an expected total of about 23.24 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Humbert comes in ranked 33 with an Elo of 1467.45 and a form index of 33.98; his mean serve index (77.18) is solid and fatigue is minimal (0.0 minutes on court this event). Van de Zandschulp is ranked 75 with a lower Elo (889.07) but a higher form index (62.30) and likewise no tournament fatigue. Surface strength indices are comparable and low for both (Humbert 10.96, van de Zandschulp 9.27), indicating neither has a distinct hard-court edge from that metric. There is a large gap in serve and return metrics: van de Zandschulp’s mean serve index (97.57) is markedly higher than Humbert’s, and his mean return index (96.31) far outstrips Humbert’s 45.31 — both differences exceed 5 points and are likely to shape patterns of pressure on serve and opportunities on return. Recent form shows Humbert with a win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina but back-to-back defeats to Tomas Machac and Ben Shelton; match durations in those events were long. Van de Zandschulp arrived with two wins at the Australian Open (Brandon Nakashima, Juncheng Shang) before a loss to Novak Djokovic, indicating regained rhythm despite the top-end loss.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this matchup is elevated: predicted aces total about 15.35 for the match. The double faults prediction is modest with expected double faults around 3.91. On medium-paced hard courts, aces are moderate compared with grass but higher than clay; van de Zandschulp’s significantly higher serve rating should push the predicted aces upward and be the primary driver of the projected ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 15 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Humbert’s edge in the projection rests on his higher ranking and Elo despite patchy recent results; the margin is slim. The key factor to watch will be van de Zandschulp’s serving and returning dominance — if he converts that into free points, the match dynamics could swing away from the narrow forecast.

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