Acapulco Mexico Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Valentin Vacherot vs Coleman Wong: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Valentin Vacherot

Rank: #27
54%
VS

Coleman Wong

Rank: #125
46%
Expected Total Games: 23.6
Predicted Winner: Valentin Vacherot

Ranking Trends

Valentin Vacherot

  • Current Rank: #27 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #31 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #216 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #237 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #257 (2025-02-24)

Coleman Wong

  • Current Rank: #125 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #149 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #173 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #175 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #166 (2025-02-24)

Player Metrics

Valentin Vacherot

Form Index: 37.8
ELO Rating: 1421.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1538.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.3
Clay: 9.9
Grass: 12.3
Serve Rating: 76.4
Return Rating: 38.7

Coleman Wong

Form Index: 52.9
ELO Rating: 648.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1558.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 132.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.6
Clay: 3.0
Grass: 3.4
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Valentin Vacherot
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Michelsen (0-2) hard Delray Beach 88 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Martin Damm (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (0-2) hard Adelaide 92 min

Coleman Wong
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Patrick Kypson (0-2) hard Acapulco 64 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Hernandez (2-0) hard Acapulco 68 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (1-2) hard Delray Beach 134 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) hard Delray Beach 88 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Nuno Borges (2-1) hard Delray Beach 127 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Valentin Vacherot
vs
0
Coleman Wong
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round of 32 match in Acapulco, Mexico is on hard court at an ATP 500-level event and projects as a close, serve-influenced contest. Valentin Vacherot is the model pick to win with a 53.75% probability over Coleman Wong (46.25%), and the model expects about 23.6 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Vacherot arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 27) with an Elo of 1421.3 and a form index of 37.8. He shows a strong mean serve index (76.4) and a modest return index (38.7). His surface strength index on hard is 11.26 and he has no accumulated fatigue from the event. Wong, ranked 125 with an Elo of 648.1, posts a higher form index (52.9), a markedly higher mean serve index (96.7) and a much stronger mean return index (87.3); his surface strength index is lower at 6.55 and he carries 132 minutes of court time this week. The mean serve index gap (>20 points) and the mean return index gap (>40 points) are both substantial and will shape patterns of free points on serve and return. Over their last three matches Vacherot has one win (3-1 vs Rinky Hijikata) and two straight-set defeats (to Ben Shelton and Alex Michelsen), with heavy recent match durations at major events. Wong has one clear win this week (2-0 vs Alex Hernandez) but losses to Patrick Kypson (0-2) and Flavio Cobolli (1-2); his recent matches include shorter wins and a moderate workload in Acapulco.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.6 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is elevated—predicted aces total 16.46—reflecting Wong’s superior serve index. The expected double faults total is 5.44, a modest number for a hard-court match. Hard courts tend to produce a balanced number of aces compared with grass or clay, and Wong’s significantly higher serve rating is likely to push the predicted aces upward.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.5 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.4 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Vacherot’s higher ranking, fresher legs and superior overall Elo provide a slight edge in a tight matchup. A key factor to watch is how Wong’s big serving and strong return metrics translate under fatigue; his serve will determine how many cheap points he can generate.

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