Buenos Aires Argentina Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Vit Kopriva vs Matteo Berrettini: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #97
25%
VS

Matteo Berrettini

Rank: #58
75%
Expected Total Games: 22.7
Predicted Winner: Matteo Berrettini

Player Metrics

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 37.8
ELO Rating: 664.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1554.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 147.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.4
Clay: 5.5
Grass: 4.0
Serve Rating: 62.4
Return Rating: 83.3

Matteo Berrettini

Form Index: 57.5
ELO Rating: 945.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1640.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 134.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.9
Clay: 9.5
Grass: 7.9
Serve Rating: 99.6
Return Rating: 89.0

Recent Matches

Vit Kopriva

  • Last Match: vs Alex Barrena (2-1) clay Buenos Aires 147 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Taylor Fritz (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jan-Lennard Struff (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Hugo Gaston (0-2) hard Auckland 84 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Pablo Carreno Busta (2-1) hard Auckland 120 min

Matteo Berrettini

  • Last Match: vs Federico Coria (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 134 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Learner Tien (1-2) hard Metz 104 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-0) hard Metz 81 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Quentin Halys (2-0) hard Metz 63 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alex de Minaur (0-2) hard Vienna 103 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Vit Kopriva
vs
0
Matteo Berrettini
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 16 in Buenos Aires, Argentina is a clay-court match at a 250-level event. Matteo Berrettini is favored to win — model probability: Berrettini 75.15%, Vit Kopriva 24.85% — with an expected total of about 22.7 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Kopriva (rank 97) arrives with a lower form index (37.85) and an Elo of 664.72, carrying 147 minutes of court time this week and a surface strength index of 5.52. Berrettini (rank 58) shows stronger form (57.45), a substantially higher Elo (945.62) and slightly less cumulative fatigue (134 minutes); his surface strength index is 9.51. The mean serve indices differ markedly: Berrettini 99.55 vs Kopriva 62.39 — a gap well over 5 points that favors Berrettini’s serve. Their mean return indices also differ by more than 5 points (Berrettini 88.98, Kopriva 83.34), indicating both can return, but Berrettini rates higher on both metrics overall. Recent results reflect that contrast. Kopriva has two wins in his last three, including a long three-set clay win in Buenos Aires and a five-set hard-court win earlier, plus a straight-sets loss to a top opponent; his recent matches have been lengthy, contributing to fatigue. Berrettini’s last three include a straight-sets clay victory in Buenos Aires, a hard-court loss in a best-of-three, and a comfortable hard-court win; his performances show more consistent serve-dominant outcomes. Taken together, Berrettini’s superior serve and higher Elo make him the cleaner favorite, while Kopriva’s return ability is his primary weapon.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.7 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 6.72 total and the expected double faults are roughly 4.11. On clay, predicted aces tend to be lower because slower speed and higher bounce give returners more time; this will temper the raw ace potential. Given Berrettini’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to account for most of the predicted aces, while cumulative fatigue for both players can contribute to the expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.7 Most likely: 6 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Berrettini’s edge comes from a substantially stronger serve profile, higher Elo and better recent form, which make him the clear favorite on paper. The key factor to watch is Kopriva’s ability to pressure Berrettini’s second serves and convert break opportunities — that will determine whether the match stays short or becomes more competitive.

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