Rio Brazil Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Yannick Hanfmann vs Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Yannick Hanfmann

Rank: #90
71%
VS

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Rank: #207
29%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Yannick Hanfmann

Ranking Trends

Yannick Hanfmann

  • Current Rank: #90 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #104 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #133 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #137 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #101 (2025-02-17)

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

  • Current Rank: #207 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #187 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #230 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #357 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #417 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Yannick Hanfmann

Form Index: 42.1
ELO Rating: 629.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1561.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.6
Clay: 5.7
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 76.7
Return Rating: 56.4

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Form Index: 0.6
ELO Rating: 261.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1509.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.3
Clay: 2.6
Grass: 2.5
Serve Rating: 93.8
Return Rating: 87.5

Recent Matches

Yannick Hanfmann
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Zachary Svajda (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Terence Atmane (0-2) hard Brisbane 94 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jacob Fearnley (0-2) hard Paris 82 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Adrian Mannarino (2-0) hard Paris 71 min

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Henrique Rocha (0-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Blockx (0-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Chun-Hsin Tseng (1-2) clay Rio 163 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Yannick Hanfmann
vs
0
Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round of 32 match in Rio (clay) at an ATP 500-level event pits Yannick Hanfmann against Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva. The model projects Hanfmann to win with a 71.15% probability versus 28.85% for Reis Da Silva, and forecasts about 21.96 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Hanfmann brings a clear ranking and rating advantage (rank 90, Elo 629.29) over Reis Da Silva (rank 207, Elo 261.81). Hanfmann’s form index (42.14) is markedly higher than Reis Da Silva’s (0.58), and both enter this match with no accumulated fatigue on court. Surface strength indices are low for both on clay but favor Hanfmann (5.71 vs 2.57), indicating a comparative edge on this surface. There is a substantial serve gap: Reis Da Silva’s mean serve index (93.84) exceeds Hanfmann’s (76.66) by over 17 points, and Reis Da Silva also posts a far stronger mean return index (87.46) versus Hanfmann’s 56.38 — both differences exceed the 5-point threshold and are likely to shape tactical patterns. Recent form paints Hanfmann as the more battle-tested in higher-level matches: he has one win (Svajda) and two defeats, including a straight-sets loss to a top opponent, showing he can produce wins but remains inconsistent. Reis Da Silva has struggled in his last three outings with three defeats, the most recent clay match in Rio producing a 1–2 scoreline in his favor for a set but still a loss overall. Those recent results, combined with ranking and Elo disparity, support Hanfmann’s favorite status.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.0 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match is modest: predicted aces total 12.97. Clay typically reduces ace frequency because the slower surface and higher bounce give returners more time, and the expected double faults total (expected double faults 5.16) reflects the tendency for longer rallies and potential late-match fatigue to increase error count. Reis Da Silva’s significantly higher serve rating will likely inflate the match’s ace count relative to what Hanfmann alone would produce, but the surface will temper that advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.0 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Hanfmann’s superior ranking, Elo and form provide the primary edge despite Reis Da Silva’s strong serve/return indices. Key factor to watch: whether Reis Da Silva can convert his big-serving and returning metrics into short points on slow clay; if he does not, Hanfmann’s consistency should carry him through.

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