Delray Beach FL, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Zachary Svajda: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Rank: #78
48%
VS

Zachary Svajda

Rank: #110
52%
Expected Total Games: 24.2
Predicted Winner: Zachary Svajda

Ranking Trends

Aleksandar Kovacevic

  • Current Rank: #78 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #62 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #71 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #80 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #77 (2025-02-17)

Zachary Svajda

  • Current Rank: #110 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #141 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #143 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #227 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #189 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Form Index: 34.6
ELO Rating: 879.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1556.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.7
Clay: 5.5
Grass: 6.3
Serve Rating: 84.7
Return Rating: 28.2

Zachary Svajda

Form Index: 61.1
ELO Rating: 515.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1550.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 145.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.7
Clay: 3.8
Grass: 3.7
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 89.3

Recent Matches

Aleksandar Kovacevic
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Denis Shapovalov (0-2) hard Dallas 66 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Patrick Kypson (2-0) hard Dallas 84 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Titouan Droguet (1-2) hard Montpellier 114 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Moise Kouame (2-1) hard Montpellier 114 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Zachary Svajda
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Yibing Wu (2-0) hard Delray Beach 78 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Liam Draxl (2-0) hard Delray Beach 67 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (0-2) hard Dallas 94 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tristan Boyer (2-1) hard Dallas 138 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Georgi Georgiev (2-0) hard Dallas 86 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Aleksandar Kovacevic
vs
0
Zachary Svajda
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Delray Beach hard-court event in Florida, Round of 32 action pits Aleksandar Kovacevic against Zachary Svajda in an evenly matched contest at an ATP 250-level tournament. The model predicts Zachary Svajda to win with a 51.99% probability to Kovacevic’s 48.01%, and forecasts a relatively short match of about 24.17 total games.

Match Analysis

Kovacevic enters ranked 78 with an Elo of 879.34, a modest form index (34.60) and no accumulated fatigue from this event. His strengths lie more in serving than returning: mean serve index 84.73 versus a mean return index of 28.21, and a low surface strength index (4.74). Svajda is ranked 110 with a lower Elo (515.48) but a markedly higher form index (61.12) and 145 minutes of court time this tournament. He posts a higher mean serve index (95.60) and a much stronger mean return index (89.34), with a slightly higher surface strength index (5.71). The serve index gap (>5 points) and the very large return index gap (>5 points) both favor Svajda and are likely to shape patterns of hold and break opportunities. Recent results show Kovacevic with one win and two losses in his last three hard-court matches: a straight-sets loss to Denis Shapovalov, a win over Patrick Kypson, and a three-set loss in Montpellier. Svajda has been sharper lately at Delray Beach with back-to-back straight-set wins over Yibing Wu and Liam Draxl after a prior loss to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in Dallas. These trends underline Svajda’s current match rhythm despite slightly higher fatigue.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.2 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 12.1 total, and the double faults prediction sits at an expected double faults figure of 4.45. On a medium-paced hard court, predicted aces are moderate; the surface balances serve effectiveness and return opportunities. Given Svajda’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute disproportionately to the predicted aces count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.1 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Svajda’s superior form, combined serve and return indices give him a narrow edge in this matchup despite Kovacevic’s higher rank and Elo. Watch Svajda’s return performance and Kovacevic’s ability to hold serve early — those factors should decide whether the match stays tight or tips decisively.

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