Doha Qatar Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Zhizhen Zhang vs Roberto Carballes Baena: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Zhizhen Zhang

Rank: #365
42%
VS

Roberto Carballes Baena

Rank: #175
58%
Expected Total Games: 22.5
Predicted Winner: Roberto Carballes Baena

Ranking Trends

Zhizhen Zhang

  • Current Rank: #365 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #411 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #190 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #81 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #49 (2025-02-17)

Roberto Carballes Baena

  • Current Rank: #175 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #133 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #84 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #63 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #53 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Zhizhen Zhang

Form Index: 9.9
ELO Rating: 95.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1611.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 0.1
Clay: 0.1
Grass: 0.8
Serve Rating: 79.5
Return Rating: 13.1

Roberto Carballes Baena

Form Index: 50.2
ELO Rating: 427.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1596.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 153.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.2
Clay: 4.8
Grass: 4.1
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 93.0

Recent Matches

Zhizhen Zhang
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Baez (1-2) hard Shanghai 120 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Terence Atmane (0-2) hard Beijing 71 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Dalibor Svrcina (0-2) hard Hangzhou 92 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Yunchaokete Bu (2-1) hard Hangzhou 167 min

Roberto Carballes Baena
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Shintaro Mochizuki (1-0) hard Doha 66 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Lucas Miedler (2-0) hard Doha 87 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Mees Rottgering (1-2) hard Rotterdam 189 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Pablo Carreno Busta (2-1) hard Rotterdam 116 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Andrea Vavassori (0-2) hard Montpellier 100 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Zhizhen Zhang
vs
0
Roberto Carballes Baena
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round of 32 match in Doha, Qatar is on hard court at an ATP 500 event. Roberto Carballes Baena is favored to win against Zhizhen Zhang, with a predicted probability of 58.29% to Carballes Baena and 41.71% to Zhang. The model expects a relatively short encounter, projecting about 22.5 total games.

Match Analysis

Rankings and ratings show a clear gap: Zhang sits at No. 365 with an Elo of ~95, while Carballes Baena is No. 175 with an Elo near 428. Carballes’ form index (50.20) is substantially higher than Zhang’s (9.87), and Zhang arrives with no accumulated minutes on court in this tournament compared with Carballes’ 153 minutes of fatigue. Surface strength indices are both low for these players (Zhang 0.14, Carballes 5.20), indicating neither is a surface specialist on hard courts according to the provided metric. Serve and return profiles diverge sharply. Carballes posts a mean serve index of 97.00 versus Zhang’s 79.55 — a difference greater than 5 points that favors Carballes’ serving. On return, the gap is even larger: Carballes 92.97 to Zhang 13.06, a substantial advantage for Carballes as a returner. Recent form underlines this: Zhang has lost her last three matches on hard courts (including a 0-3 loss to Francisco Cerundolo at the Australian Open), while Carballes has two straight wins in Doha and a long three-set loss in Rotterdam three matches ago.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.5 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 15.91 total, and the double faults prediction is 5.94 total. On medium-paced hard courts, predicted aces are moderate; this surface gives an even balance between servers and returners. Given Carballes’ markedly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces, while expected double faults remain low-to-moderate for both players.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Carballes Baena’s higher Elo, superior serve and return indices, and stronger recent form give him the edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: whether Zhang can neutralize Carballes’ return game early—if she cannot, the match is likely to tilt quickly in Carballes’ favor.

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