Bundesliga 2024-2025: Freiburg vs Dortmund Prediction - 5 Apr 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Freiburg

Home Team
25%
VS

Dortmund

Away Team
54%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 27 20 5 2 78 26 52 65
2 Leverkusen 27 17 8 2 62 34 28 59
3 Ein Frankfurt 27 14 6 7 55 40 15 48
4 Mainz 27 13 6 8 45 31 14 45
5 M'gladbach 27 13 4 10 44 40 4 43
6 RB Leipzig 27 11 9 7 41 34 7 42
7 Freiburg 27 12 6 9 37 40 -3 42
8 Augsburg 27 10 9 8 30 36 -6 39
9 Wolfsburg 27 10 8 9 49 41 8 38
10 Dortmund 27 11 5 11 48 42 6 38
11 Stuttgart 27 10 7 10 47 44 3 37
12 Werder Bremen 27 10 6 11 43 53 -10 36
13 Union Berlin 27 8 6 13 25 40 -15 30
14 Hoffenheim 27 6 9 12 33 49 -16 27
15 St Pauli 27 7 4 16 22 33 -11 25
16 Heidenheim 27 6 4 17 32 52 -20 22
17 Bochum 27 5 5 17 28 55 -27 20
18 Holstein Kiel 27 4 5 18 38 67 -29 17

Recent Trends

Freiburg L D D D W

  • Last Match: L vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Mainz (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 5 - 0)

Dortmund W L L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Mainz (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 6 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Freiburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.16
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.18
# Clean Sheets: 3

Dortmund

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.46
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.76
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Bundesliga clash between Freiburg and Dortmund is predicted to favor the away side, with Dortmund holding a 54.0% probability of winning. Freiburg's chances stand at 25.0%, while a draw is pegged at 21.0%. The match is expected to be high-scoring, with a 57.0% likelihood of over 2.5 goals. Freiburg currently sits 7th in the league, slightly ahead of Dortmund, who are in 10th place.

Match Analysis

Freiburg's recent form has been somewhat mixed. In their last three outings, they secured two draws against Mainz and RB Leipzig, and suffered a home defeat to Union Berlin. Their average of 1.6 goals scored over the last five games suggests a decent attacking output, while conceding an average of 0.8 goals demonstrates a relatively solid defense. Notably, Freiburg has managed to keep three clean sheets in their last five matches, highlighting their defensive resilience. Dortmund, on the other hand, are experiencing a challenging period. They managed a convincing 3-1 victory over Mainz but followed up with back-to-back losses, failing to score against both RB Leipzig and Augsburg. Despite averaging only 0.8 goals scored recently, their expected goals average is much higher at 2.462, indicating they are creating chances but struggling to convert them. Defensively, Dortmund has leaked an average of 1.4 goals per game, which is a concern heading into this fixture.

Final Prediction

Dortmund's predicted edge in this match could stem from their ability to create scoring opportunities, as reflected in their high expected goals figure. A key factor to watch will be whether they can capitalize on these chances and break down Freiburg's sturdy defense. The battle between Dortmund's attack and Freiburg's defense may well decide the outcome, making it an intriguing contest for football fans.

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