NBA Player Projections
AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters
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Player projections will appear here once tonight's games are processed.
Check back closer to game time.
How Player Projections Work
We generate full probability distributions for four stat categories — points, rebounds, assists, and 3-pointers made — for every projected starter in tonight's games. Each stat has its own dedicated model trained on thousands of player-game observations.
The models learn from a combination of player-level and game-level features: recent game logs, opponent defensive context, pace of play, home/away splits, expected minutes and usage patterns, and injury-driven opportunity redistribution when key teammates are out.
The result is not a single number — it's a complete picture of what's likely, what's possible, and how confident the model actually is. The PDF chart shows the probability of each specific outcome. The CDF chart answers "what's the probability of going over X?" at any threshold.
Frequently Asked Questions
What stats do you project for NBA players?
We generate projections for four categories: points (PTS), rebounds (REB), assists (AST), and three-pointers made (3PM). Each projection includes a full probability distribution, not just a single expected value.
How are the player projection models built?
Each stat has its own dedicated model trained on historical player game logs combined with contextual features like opponent defensive efficiency, game pace, home/away splits, playing time expectations, and injury context. The models output a complete probability distribution for each stat category.
How do I read the PDF chart?
The PDF (Probability Density Function) chart shows the probability of each specific outcome as a bar. The tallest bar is the most likely single outcome. The dashed E[X] line marks the expected value. A narrow distribution means high confidence; a wide one indicates more uncertainty. Full guide to probability charts.
How do I use the CDF chart for over/under analysis?
The CDF chart shows the probability of a player going over any given value. Find a threshold on the x-axis and read the corresponding percentage. For example, if the chart shows 62% at 20 points, there is a 62% chance the player scores more than 20. The complementary 38% is the under probability.
How often are player projections updated?
Projections are generated daily before games begin, incorporating the latest lineup information, injury reports, and recent performance data for every expected starter.
Which players are included?
We generate projections for all expected starters in tonight's NBA games — typically 10 players per game across all scheduled matchups.
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