Bundesliga 2024-2025: Dortmund vs M'gladbach Prediction - 20 Apr 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Dortmund

Home Team
78%
VS

M'gladbach

Away Team
10%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 29 21 6 2 83 29 54 69
2 Leverkusen 29 18 9 2 63 34 29 63
3 Ein Frankfurt 29 15 6 8 58 42 16 51
4 RB Leipzig 29 13 9 7 47 37 10 48
5 Mainz 29 13 7 9 46 34 12 46
6 Freiburg 29 13 6 10 40 45 -5 45
7 M'gladbach 29 13 5 11 46 43 3 44
8 Dortmund 29 12 6 11 54 45 9 42
9 Werder Bremen 29 12 6 11 47 54 -7 42
10 Augsburg 29 11 9 9 33 40 -7 42
11 Stuttgart 29 11 7 11 52 46 6 40
12 Wolfsburg 29 10 8 11 51 45 6 38
13 Union Berlin 29 9 7 13 26 40 -14 34
14 Hoffenheim 29 7 9 13 36 52 -16 30
15 St Pauli 29 8 5 16 25 35 -10 29
16 Heidenheim 29 6 4 19 32 56 -24 22
17 Bochum 29 5 5 19 29 61 -32 20
18 Holstein Kiel 29 4 6 19 40 70 -30 18

Recent Trends

Dortmund D W W L L

  • Last Match: D vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Mainz (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 1)

M'gladbach L D W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Dortmund

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.36
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.57
# Clean Sheets: 0

M'gladbach

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.78
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.93
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Bundesliga clash between Dortmund and M'gladbach sees the hosts as clear favorites, with a 78.0% probability of securing a victory. Alongside this, the match is tipped to be high-scoring, with a 55.0% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored. The teams are currently neck and neck in the standings, with M'gladbach sitting in 7th place and Dortmund just behind in 8th.

Match Analysis

In recent outings, Dortmund has shown a resurgence in form, notably drawing 2-2 against league leaders Bayern Munich away from home. They've followed this with convincing victories – a 4-1 away triumph at Freiburg and a solid 3-1 home win over Mainz. These results showcase a team finding its rhythm, especially in attack, with an average of 2.4 goals scored in their last five matches. However, their defensive frailties remain, as evidenced by their lack of clean sheets in the same period. M'gladbach's recent form has been more mixed. They managed to secure a narrow 1-0 victory against RB Leipzig, but this was sandwiched between a 2-1 home loss to Freiburg and a 1-1 away draw against St Pauli. While they average the same number of goals scored as Dortmund over the last five games (2.4), their defense has been slightly tighter, conceding an average of 1.0 goals per game. Their expected goals metrics suggest they might not convert as many chances as Dortmund, which could be pivotal.

Final Prediction

Dortmund holds the edge in this encounter due to their superior attacking form and recent results against tough opponents. Their ability to consistently score goals provides them with a crucial advantage, especially playing at home. One key factor to watch will be Dortmund's ability to capitalize on their expected goals, potentially turning opportunities into decisive moments against a M'gladbach side that has shown vulnerabilities.

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