Goal Spread Predictions
Expected goal difference with full probability distributions
Updated: 19 May 2026Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.
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How Goal Spread Predictions Work
Our Poisson regression model predicts the goal difference (home goals minus away goals) for each match. Unlike a simple number, the model outputs a complete probability distribution — the likelihood of every possible spread from -5 to +5. Positive values mean the home team is favored; negative values favor the away team. Expand any row to see the full distribution curve and CDF chart for over/under analysis at any threshold.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is goal spread?
Goal spread is the difference between home team goals and away team goals. A spread of +1.5 means the home team is expected to win by about 1-2 goals. A spread of -0.8 means the away team is slightly favored.
How do I read the spread distribution chart?
The PDF chart shows the probability of each specific goal difference. The CDF chart shows the probability of the spread being over any threshold — useful for handicap analysis. Full guide to probability charts.
Which leagues are included?
This page aggregates predictions from Serie A, La Liga, Bundesliga, Premier League, and Ligue 1. Use the league filter to focus on a specific competition.
Why use a Poisson model for spread?
Goal differences in football follow patterns well-captured by Poisson distributions. Our model uses a shift transformation to handle negative values, outputting calibrated probabilities across the full range of possible outcomes.
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