Goal Spread Predictions
Expected goal difference with full probability distributions
Updated: 19 May 2026Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.
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How Goal Spread Predictions Work
Our Poisson regression model predicts the goal difference (home goals minus away goals) for each match. Unlike a simple number, the model outputs a complete probability distribution — the likelihood of every possible spread from -5 to +5. Positive values mean the home team is favored; negative values favor the away team. Expand any row to see the full distribution curve and CDF chart for over/under analysis at any threshold.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is goal spread?
Goal spread is the difference between home team goals and away team goals. A spread of +1.5 means the home team is expected to win by about 1-2 goals. A spread of -0.8 means the away team is slightly favored.
How do I read the spread distribution chart?
The PDF chart shows the probability of each specific goal difference. The CDF chart shows the probability of the spread being over any threshold — useful for handicap analysis. Full guide to probability charts.
Which leagues are included?
This page aggregates predictions from Serie A, La Liga, Bundesliga, Premier League and Ligue 1 plus seven second divisions — 12 European leagues in total. Use the league filter to focus on a specific competition.
Why use a Poisson model for spread?
Goal differences in football follow patterns well-captured by Poisson distributions. Our model uses a shift transformation to handle negative values, outputting calibrated probabilities across the full range of possible outcomes.
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