Draw Predictions
Matches ranked by draw probability across all leagues
Updated: 19 May 2026Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.
Set it up| Home | Away | League | Home % | Draw % | Away % |
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How Draw Predictions Work
Our multiclass neural network simultaneously predicts the probability of three outcomes: home win, draw, and away win. This page ranks all matches by draw probability — the higher the value, the more evenly matched the model considers the two teams. Draws occur in roughly 25% of European football matches, making them the hardest outcome to predict. Our model leverages team form, ELO ratings, and historical head-to-head patterns to identify the most likely stalemates.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is draw probability calculated?
Our multiclass neural network outputs three probabilities (home win, draw, away win) that sum to 100%. The draw probability reflects how evenly matched the model considers the teams based on ~700 features.
Why are draws hard to predict?
Draws occur in only ~25% of matches and are the most uncertain outcome. Even well-calibrated models assign draw probabilities in the 20-35% range. This page helps you identify matches where the draw signal is strongest relative to the baseline.
Which leagues are included?
This page aggregates predictions from Serie A, La Liga, Bundesliga, Premier League, and Ligue 1. Use the league filter to narrow to a specific competition.
How should I interpret a high draw probability?
A draw probability above 30% is notable — the league average is around 25%. Values above 35% indicate the model sees two very evenly matched sides with limited goal-scoring expected.
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