Bundesliga 2024-2025: Freiburg vs Leverkusen Prediction - 4 May 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Freiburg

Home Team
12%
VS

Leverkusen

Away Team
78%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 31 23 6 2 90 29 61 75
2 Leverkusen 31 19 10 2 66 35 31 67
3 Ein Frankfurt 31 16 7 8 62 42 20 55
4 Freiburg 31 15 6 10 44 47 -3 51
5 RB Leipzig 31 13 10 8 48 42 6 49
6 Dortmund 31 14 6 11 60 49 11 48
7 Mainz 31 13 8 10 48 39 9 47
8 Werder Bremen 31 13 7 11 48 54 -6 46
9 M'gladbach 31 13 5 13 51 50 1 44
10 Augsburg 31 11 10 10 33 42 -9 43
11 Stuttgart 31 11 8 12 56 51 5 41
12 Wolfsburg 31 10 9 12 53 48 5 39
13 Union Berlin 31 9 9 13 31 45 -14 36
14 St Pauli 31 8 7 16 26 36 -10 31
15 Hoffenheim 31 7 9 15 40 58 -18 30
16 Heidenheim 31 7 4 20 33 60 -27 25
17 Holstein Kiel 31 5 7 19 45 74 -29 22
18 Bochum 31 5 6 20 30 63 -33 21

Recent Trends

Freiburg W W W L L

  • Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 2)

Leverkusen W D D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Union Berlin (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Bochum (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Freiburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.55
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.03
# Clean Sheets: 1

Leverkusen

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.70
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.59
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

In the upcoming Bundesliga clash, Leverkusen is predicted to emerge victorious with a substantial probability of 78.0%, reflecting their strong form. The match is also anticipated to feature more than 2.5 goals, with a 58.0% likelihood. Currently, Leverkusen sits comfortably in second place, while Freiburg is battling for a top-four finish in fourth position.

Match Analysis

Freiburg enters this contest on a high, having secured victories in their last three matches against Wolfsburg, Hoffenheim, and M'gladbach. Their recent form has seen them scoring an average of 2.0 goals per game while conceding 1.6. However, a closer look at their metrics reveals a slightly underwhelming average of 1.552 expected goals scored and a concerning 2.034 expected goals conceded, which may hint at vulnerabilities in their defense. Leverkusen, on the other hand, has been a force to reckon with. Although they drew their last two matches against St Pauli and Union Berlin, they secured a convincing win against Augsburg. Their offensive capabilities are evident with an average of 2.4 goals scored in their last 5 games, and they have managed to maintain a strong defensive record with 3 clean sheets in the same period. Their advanced metrics show an average of 1.7 expected goals scored and 1.592 expected goals conceded, highlighting their balanced play.

Final Prediction

Leverkusen's edge in this encounter stems from their superior form and consistency in both attack and defense. With a potent offense and a sturdy defense, they are well-positioned to capitalize on any defensive lapses from Freiburg. A key factor to watch will be Leverkusen's ability to convert their chances, which could prove decisive in securing victory.

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