Bundesliga 2024-2025: Leverkusen vs Dortmund Prediction - 11 May 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Leverkusen

Home Team
59%
VS

Dortmund

Away Team
20%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 32 23 7 2 93 32 61 76
2 Leverkusen 32 19 11 2 68 37 31 68
3 Ein Frankfurt 32 16 8 8 63 43 20 56
4 Freiburg 32 15 7 10 46 49 -3 52
5 Dortmund 32 15 6 11 64 49 15 51
6 RB Leipzig 32 13 11 8 51 45 6 50
7 Mainz 32 13 9 10 49 40 9 48
8 Werder Bremen 32 13 8 11 50 56 -6 47
9 M'gladbach 32 13 6 13 55 54 1 45
10 Stuttgart 32 12 8 12 57 51 6 44
11 Augsburg 32 11 10 11 34 45 -11 43
12 Wolfsburg 32 10 9 13 53 52 1 39
13 Union Berlin 32 9 10 13 33 47 -14 37
14 St Pauli 32 8 7 17 26 37 -11 31
15 Hoffenheim 32 7 10 15 44 62 -18 31
16 Heidenheim 32 7 5 20 33 60 -27 26
17 Holstein Kiel 32 6 7 19 48 75 -27 25
18 Bochum 32 5 7 20 30 63 -33 22

Recent Trends

Leverkusen D W D D W

  • Last Match: D vs Freiburg (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Union Berlin (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 0)

Dortmund W W W D W

  • Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 4 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Leverkusen

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.51
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.72
# Clean Sheets: 3

Dortmund

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.81
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.80
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Bundesliga clash between Leverkusen and Dortmund is poised to be a thrilling encounter, with Leverkusen carrying a 59.0% probability of victory on their home turf. Currently sitting second in the league, Leverkusen is well-positioned to secure a top-four finish, while Dortmund, in fifth place, is battling for a Champions League spot. The game is expected to be high-scoring, with a 58.0% probability of over 2.5 goals, suggesting an exciting display of attacking football.

Match Analysis

Leverkusen enters the match with a mixed bag of recent performances, having secured a victory against Augsburg at home and two draws away to Freiburg and St Pauli. They have demonstrated defensive solidity, with three clean sheets in their last five matches, and an average of only 0.6 goals conceded per game. Their offensive output has been modest, averaging 1.0 goal per game, but their expected goals (1.508) indicate potential for more productivity in front of goal. On the other hand, Dortmund is riding a wave of success with three consecutive wins, including a commanding 4-0 victory over Wolfsburg. Their attacking prowess is evident with an average of 2.2 goals scored per game, buoyed by an impressive 2.806 expected goals. However, their defense has been less reliable, conceding 1.4 goals per game, which could be a vulnerability against a determined Leverkusen side.

Final Prediction

Leverkusen's position as favorites is justified by their strong defensive record and home advantage, giving them an edge over Dortmund. The key factor in this matchup will be Leverkusen's ability to capitalize on Dortmund's defensive frailties while maintaining their own defensive discipline. Football fans should watch for Leverkusen's defensive resilience as they aim to stifle Dortmund's potent attack and secure a crucial victory in their quest for a top-four finish.

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