La Liga 2024-2025: Alaves vs Valencia Prediction - 14 May 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Alaves

Home Team
40%
VS

Valencia

Away Team
32%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 35 26 4 5 95 36 59 82
2 Real Madrid 35 23 6 6 72 37 35 75
3 Ath Madrid 35 20 10 5 60 27 33 70
4 Ath Bilbao 35 17 13 5 51 26 25 64
5 Villarreal 35 17 10 8 61 47 14 61
6 Betis 35 16 10 9 53 43 10 58
7 Celta 35 14 7 14 55 54 1 49
8 Vallecano 35 12 11 12 37 42 -5 47
9 Mallorca 35 13 8 14 33 40 -7 47
10 Valencia 35 11 12 12 43 51 -8 45
11 Osasuna 35 10 15 10 43 51 -8 45
12 Sociedad 35 12 7 16 32 41 -9 43
13 Getafe 35 10 9 16 31 34 -3 39
14 Espanol 35 10 9 16 38 47 -9 39
15 Girona 35 10 8 17 41 53 -12 38
16 Sevilla 35 9 11 15 39 49 -10 38
17 Alaves 35 8 11 16 35 47 -12 35
18 Leganes 35 7 13 15 35 53 -18 34
19 Las Palmas 35 8 8 19 40 57 -17 32
20 Valladolid 35 4 4 27 26 85 -59 16

Recent Trends

Alaves L D W D L

  • Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 0 - 1)

Valencia W W D D W

  • Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Las Palmas (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Alaves

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.03
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.09
# Clean Sheets: 2

Valencia

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.52
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.67
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Alaves and Valencia leans towards a home victory with a 40.0% probability, despite Valencia's recent form. The game is expected to have fewer than 2.5 goals, considering the 43.0% chance of such an outcome. Alaves is currently fighting to stay out of the relegation zone in 17th place, while Valencia sits mid-table in 10th position.

Match Analysis

Alaves comes into this match with a mixed bag of results. They suffered a narrow 0-1 defeat away to Athletic Bilbao but managed to secure a goalless draw at home against Atletico Madrid. A hard-fought 1-0 victory over Sociedad highlights their ability to grind out results, especially in front of their home fans. Alaves' defense has been relatively solid, with two clean sheets in their last five matches, conceding an average of just 0.6 goals per game. Valencia, on the other hand, has displayed a potent attacking force, scoring an average of 2 goals per game in their last five outings. They enjoyed a comfortable 3-0 win against Getafe and a thrilling 3-2 victory over Las Palmas, but their defense has shown vulnerabilities, conceding 1.6 goals per game. Valencia's ability to score has been supplemented by their expected goals metric, sitting at 1.518, indicating consistent offensive opportunities.

Final Prediction

Alaves' slight edge in this matchup stems from their defensive resilience, particularly at home, which might frustrate Valencia's attack. A key factor to watch will be whether Alaves can maintain their defensive solidity against a Valencia side that has proven capable of scoring freely. The outcome of this battle could hinge on Alaves' ability to stifle Valencia's attacking momentum while capitalizing on any scoring chances they create.

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