La Liga 2024-2025: Ath Bilbao vs Alaves Prediction - 11 May 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Ath Bilbao

Home Team
86%
VS

Alaves

Away Team
6%
Draw: 8%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 47%
No Goal: 53%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 34 25 4 5 91 33 58 79
2 Real Madrid 34 23 6 5 69 33 36 75
3 Ath Madrid 34 19 10 5 56 27 29 67
4 Ath Bilbao 34 16 13 5 50 26 24 61
5 Villarreal 34 16 10 8 60 47 13 58
6 Betis 34 16 9 9 52 42 10 57
7 Celta 34 13 7 14 52 52 0 46
8 Vallecano 34 11 11 12 36 42 -6 44
9 Osasuna 34 10 14 10 42 50 -8 44
10 Mallorca 34 12 8 14 31 39 -8 44
11 Sociedad 34 12 7 15 32 37 -5 43
12 Valencia 34 10 12 12 40 51 -11 42
13 Getafe 34 10 9 15 31 31 0 39
14 Espanol 34 10 9 15 36 44 -8 39
15 Girona 34 10 8 16 41 52 -11 38
16 Sevilla 34 9 11 14 37 46 -9 38
17 Alaves 34 8 11 15 35 46 -11 35
18 Las Palmas 34 8 8 18 40 56 -16 32
19 Leganes 34 6 13 15 32 51 -19 31
20 Valladolid 34 4 4 26 25 83 -58 16

Recent Trends

Ath Bilbao D W L W D

  • Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Las Palmas (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Vallecano (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Villarreal (Goals: 0 - 0)

Alaves D W D L W

  • Last Match: D vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Ath Bilbao

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.33
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.01
# Clean Sheets: 3

Alaves

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.33
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.83
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Athletic Bilbao enters the upcoming La Liga clash as the overwhelming favorite with an 86.0% probability of securing a victory over their opponents, Alaves, who have a slender 6.0% chance of winning. The likelihood of the match ending in a draw stands at 8.0%. Additionally, the probability of the game featuring more than 2.5 goals is relatively low at 44.0%, suggesting a likely outcome of fewer goals. Currently, Athletic Bilbao holds a strong position in 4th place, while Alaves is fighting in 17th, hovering just above the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

In their last three matches, Athletic Bilbao has demonstrated mixed form. Following a goalless draw against Sociedad, they managed a narrow home victory over Las Palmas, but then succumbed to a 1-0 defeat against Real Madrid. Despite these results, Bilbao has maintained a solid defense, recording three clean sheets in their last five games. Their recent offensive statistics show an average of 2.4 goals scored per game, indicating a potent attack that will be eager to exploit Alaves' vulnerabilities. Alaves, on the other hand, has shown resilience with a win against Sociedad and draws against both Athletico Madrid and Sevilla in their last three outings. They have managed to keep three clean sheets in their recent matches, although they have conceded an average of 1.4 goals per game. While their attack has been less prolific, averaging 1.6 goals per game, they have shown the capability to grind out results, which could be crucial in their fight against relegation.

Final Prediction

Athletic Bilbao's strong defensive record and superior league position give them the edge in this encounter. Their ability to control the game and keep opponents at bay could be decisive, especially against an Alaves side that has struggled to consistently find the back of the net. One key factor to watch will be Bilbao's attacking efficiency, which could determine if they can break through Alaves' defenses and secure the expected victory.

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