Ligue 1 2024-2025: Lens vs St Etienne Prediction - 6 Apr 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Lens

Home Team
95%
VS

St Etienne

Away Team
2%
Draw: 3%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 27 22 5 0 79 26 53 71
2 Monaco 27 15 5 7 53 33 20 50
3 Marseille 27 15 4 8 54 36 18 49
4 Nice 27 13 8 6 51 33 18 47
5 Lille 27 13 8 6 41 28 13 47
6 Strasbourg 27 13 7 7 45 35 10 46
7 Lyon 27 13 6 8 52 37 15 45
8 Brest 27 12 4 11 42 42 0 40
9 Lens 27 11 6 10 31 30 1 39
10 Auxerre 27 9 8 10 38 39 -1 35
11 Toulouse 27 9 7 11 35 33 2 34
12 Rennes 27 10 2 15 38 37 1 32
13 Nantes 27 6 9 12 31 46 -15 27
14 Angers 27 7 6 14 26 45 -19 27
15 Reims 27 6 8 13 29 41 -12 26
16 Le Havre 27 7 3 17 29 57 -28 24
17 St Etienne 26 5 5 16 26 63 -37 20
18 Montpellier 26 4 3 19 21 60 -39 15

Recent Trends

Lens L W W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Le Havre (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 3)

St Etienne L D L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 6)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Angers (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 5)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lens

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.26
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.20
# Clean Sheets: 2

St Etienne

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.22
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 3.30
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the upcoming clash between Lens and St Etienne, Lens is heavily favored to secure a victory with an overwhelming 95.0% probability. The game is expected to see over 2.5 goals, with a 56.0% chance of such an outcome. Lens currently sits in 9th place in Ligue 1, while St Etienne is struggling in 17th, making their fight to avoid relegation increasingly desperate.

Match Analysis

Lens has shown mixed form in their recent matches. They bounced back from a narrow defeat against Lille with consecutive victories against Rennes and Marseille, both with clean sheets. Lens has managed to score an average of 1.2 goals in their last five outings while maintaining a noteworthy defensive performance with two clean sheets. Their expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) metrics suggest a balanced team capable of creating and preventing chances effectively. In contrast, St Etienne has been on a tough run, suffering heavy defeats to Paris SG and Nice, with a solitary draw against Le Havre providing little relief. Their defense has been porous, conceding an average of 2.6 goals per game, while their attack has struggled, managing just an average of 1.0 goals in the same period. With no clean sheets in their last five matches and a high expected goals against (xGA) of 3.298, St Etienne's defensive fragility is a significant concern.

Final Prediction

Lens is poised to capitalize on St Etienne's defensive woes, leveraging their recent solid performances and superior league standing. The key factor to watch will be Lens's ability to exploit St Etienne's vulnerabilities at the back, potentially leading to a high-scoring affair as predicted. Fans should keep an eye on Lens's attacking maneuvers, as they are likely to dictate the pace and outcome of the match.

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