Ligue 1 2024-2025: Nantes vs Lille Prediction - 15 Mar 2025
Result | Under-Over 2.5
Nantes
Home Team
10%
VS
Lille
Away Team
81%
Draw: 9%
Over 2.5:
58%
Under 2.5:
42%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 25 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 70 | 24 | 46 | 65 |
| 2 | Marseille | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 52 | 30 | 22 | 49 |
| 3 | Nice | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 49 | 30 | 19 | 46 |
| 4 | Monaco | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 49 | 32 | 17 | 44 |
| 5 | Lille | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 40 | 27 | 13 | 44 |
| 6 | Lyon | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 31 | 15 | 42 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 39 | 32 | 7 | 40 |
| 8 | Lens | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 36 |
| 9 | Brest | 25 | 11 | 3 | 11 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 36 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 32 | 27 | 5 | 34 |
| 11 | Auxerre | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 31 |
| 12 | Rennes | 25 | 9 | 2 | 14 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 29 |
| 13 | Angers | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 27 |
| 14 | Nantes | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 28 | 43 | -15 | 24 |
| 15 | Reims | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 22 |
| 16 | Le Havre | 25 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 24 | 51 | -27 | 21 |
| 17 | St Etienne | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 25 | 57 | -32 | 20 |
| 18 | Montpellier | 25 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 21 | 59 | -38 | 15 |
Recent Trends
Nantes
- Last Match: vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Lens (Goals: 3 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 7)
- 5th Last Match: vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 2)
Lille
- Last Match: vs Montpellier (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 4)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Monaco (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Rennes (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 2)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Nantes
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.88
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.17
# Clean Sheets:
0
Lille
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.72
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.41
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming match between Nantes and Lille is predicted to heavily favor Lille, with an 81.0% probability of an away team victory. The likelihood of the game featuring more than 2.5 goals stands at 58.0%. Currently, Lille is in a strong position, sitting fifth in the Ligue 1 standings, while Nantes is struggling in 14th place.
Match Analysis
Looking at recent performances, Nantes has endured a challenging run, with two losses and one win in their last three games. After a disappointing 0-1 loss at home to Strasbourg and a 0-2 defeat away at Marseille, they managed a morale-boosting 3-1 home victory against Lens. Despite showing glimpses of their potential in the Lens match, Nantes has struggled to maintain consistency, reflected in their average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded over the last five games. Their defensive vulnerabilities are further highlighted by the lack of clean sheets in recent outings.
Lille, on the other hand, comes into this fixture with a stronger foothold, having won two of their last three matches. They secured a tight 1-0 home win against Montpellier and an impressive 2-1 victory over Monaco, though they did suffer a heavy 1-4 defeat at the hands of league leaders Paris SG. Lille's defensive resilience has been notable, with two clean sheets in their past five games. While their average goals scored per game stands at 1.0, their expected goals metric of 1.72 suggests they have the potential to be more prolific in front of goal.
Final Prediction
Lille's superior league standing and recent form give them a distinct edge over Nantes in this encounter. Key to their potential success will be their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities, as suggested by their expected goals figures. A factor to watch will be Lille's defense, which has shown strength and could be pivotal in stifling Nantes' attack.
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