Ligue 1 2024-2025: Nice vs Lyon Prediction - 9 Mar 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Nice

Home Team
54%
VS

Lyon

Away Team
23%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 24 19 5 0 66 23 43 62
2 Marseille 24 15 4 5 52 29 23 49
3 Nice 24 13 7 4 49 28 21 46
4 Monaco 24 13 4 7 48 31 17 43
5 Lille 24 11 8 5 39 27 12 41
6 Lyon 24 11 6 7 44 31 13 39
7 Strasbourg 24 10 7 7 38 32 6 37
8 Toulouse 24 9 6 9 31 26 5 33
9 Lens 24 9 6 9 29 29 0 33
10 Brest 24 10 3 11 36 40 -4 33
11 Rennes 24 9 2 13 34 32 2 29
12 Auxerre 24 7 7 10 34 38 -4 28
13 Angers 24 7 6 11 26 38 -12 27
14 Nantes 24 5 9 10 28 42 -14 24
15 Reims 24 5 7 12 26 38 -12 22
16 Le Havre 24 6 2 16 23 50 -27 20
17 St Etienne 24 5 4 15 24 56 -32 19
18 Montpellier 24 4 3 17 21 58 -37 15

Recent Trends

Nice W W W W D

  • Last Match: W vs St Etienne (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Montpellier (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lens (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 1)

Lyon W L W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Montpellier (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Reims (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Nice

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.28
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.20
# Clean Sheets: 2

Lyon

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.54
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.10
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Ligue 1 clash between Nice and Lyon is predicted to be an exciting encounter with Nice favored to win. With a 54.0% probability of a home victory, Nice is the frontrunner, while Lyon holds a 23.0% chance of success, the same probability as a draw. Positioned 3rd in the league, Nice is in a strong position to secure a Champions League spot, whereas Lyon, currently 6th, is battling to climb the table. The match is anticipated to be high-scoring, with a 62.0% probability of seeing over 2.5 goals.

Match Analysis

Both teams enter this fixture with recent positive momentum. Nice is on a three-game winning streak, having dispatched St Etienne, Montpellier, and Le Havre with solid performances. Their recent form is bolstered by their strong defensive displays, conceding only 2 goals across these matches and keeping two clean sheets. Offensively, Nice has been proficient, averaging 2.2 goals per match in their last five, a testament to their attacking prowess. Conversely, Lyon has also been formidable, winning two of their last three matches. They secured victories against Brest and Montpellier, though they narrowly lost to league leaders Paris SG. Lyon's recent match data reveals a slight vulnerability in defense, conceding two goals per game on average. Their attack, however, remains potent with an average of 1.8 goals scored in their last five matches, supported by a noteworthy 4-goal outburst against Montpellier.

Final Prediction

Nice's current form and defensive solidity provide them with a clear edge over Lyon. Their ability to maintain clean sheets and capitalize on scoring opportunities makes them the favored team in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be Nice's ability to control the game defensively while exploiting any defensive lapses from Lyon to secure the win.

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