Premier League 2025-2026: Aston Villa vs Liverpool Prediction - 15 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Aston Villa

Home Team
39%
VS

Liverpool

Away Team
36%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 24.3
Expected Spread: +0.2

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 36 24 7 5 68 26 42 79
2 Man City 36 23 8 5 75 32 43 77
3 Man United 36 18 11 7 63 48 15 65
4 Liverpool 36 17 8 11 60 48 12 59
5 Aston Villa 36 17 8 11 50 46 4 59
6 Bournemouth 36 13 16 7 56 52 4 55
7 Brighton 36 14 11 11 52 42 10 53
8 Brentford 36 14 9 13 52 49 3 51
9 Chelsea 36 13 10 13 55 49 6 49
10 Everton 36 13 10 13 46 46 0 49
11 Fulham 36 14 6 16 44 50 -6 48
12 Sunderland 36 12 12 12 37 46 -9 48
13 Newcastle 36 13 7 16 50 52 -2 46
14 Leeds 36 10 14 12 48 53 -5 44
15 Crystal Palace 36 11 11 14 38 47 -9 44
16 Nott'm Forest 36 11 10 15 45 47 -2 43
17 Tottenham 36 9 11 16 46 55 -9 38
18 West Ham 36 9 9 18 42 62 -20 36
19 Burnley 36 4 9 23 37 73 -36 21
20 Wolves 36 3 9 24 25 66 -41 18

Recent Trends

Aston Villa D L L W D

  • Last Match: D vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 1)

Liverpool D L W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Aston Villa

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.86
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.62
# Clean Sheets: 0

Liverpool

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.59
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.81
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Aston Villa are marginally favoured here, with a 39.0% chance of victory compared to Liverpool’s 36.0%, and a 24.0% probability of a draw, giving the home side the predicted result. With both clubs locked on 59 points in 4th and 5th place respectively, it shapes as a direct shoot-out in the Champions League race. Goals are expected: the model leans to an over 2.5 prediction with a 59.0% probability and both teams tipped to score.

Match Analysis

Both sides arrive in patchy form. Aston Villa have taken just one point from their last three league outings – a 2-2 draw away at Burnley followed by defeats to Tottenham (1-2 at home) and Fulham (0-1 away). They’ve still carried threat, creating 18 shots at Burnley and 10 at Fulham, but defensive looseness shows in the four goals conceded across those games and zero clean sheets in their last five overall. Villa’s recent averages – 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match over the last five – underline a team that plays on the front foot but leaves space at the back. Liverpool’s run is similarly uneven: a 3-1 home win over Crystal Palace was offset by a 3-2 defeat at Manchester United and a 1-1 draw at home to Chelsea. They’ve scored 6 and conceded 5 in those three, with the United defeat particularly open, featuring 31 shots in total. The advanced numbers point to a side not fully in control defensively: 1.588 xG created and 1.808 xG conceded on average over the last five. By contrast, Villa’s underlying figures (1.864 xG for, 1.622 xG against) suggest slightly better balance, which helps to explain why the home team edges the probabilities.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Aston Villa
Goals in last 5 matches
Liverpool
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 59.0% makes sense given recent scorelines. Two of Villa’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (2-2 at Burnley, 1-2 vs Spurs), with only the 0-1 loss at Fulham falling under. Liverpool have also seen two of their last three cross the line (3-2 at United, 3-1 vs Palace), with the 1-1 against Chelsea under 2.5. Villa’s mix of 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded per game, plus Liverpool’s 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, combined with both sides posting xG figures around 1.5–1.9 at each end, points firmly towards goals rather than a cagey contest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Aston Villa
Corners in last 5 matches
Liverpool
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 9.93, hinting at a steady but not extreme volume from two proactive sides. Villa’s last three have produced 10, 10 and 7 total corners respectively, while Liverpool’s have seen 7, 5 and 13. Both teams like to attack wide and sustain pressure – Villa racked up 8 corners at Burnley, Liverpool 8 against Palace – which supports a predicted corners count around the 10 mark in another open, end-to-end game.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Aston Villa
Shots in last 5 matches
Liverpool
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With expected shots of 24.27 in total, the shots prediction is for a lively contest in and around both penalty areas. Villa’s last three matches have featured 33, 15 and 23 total shots, while Liverpool’s have seen 14, 31 and 23, underlining how quickly their games can open up. Those volumes marry neatly with the xG profiles for both teams: plenty of attempts, chances at both ends, and an overall shot count in the mid‑20s looking a realistic baseline.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Aston Villa wins by X goals. Negative = Liverpool wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Aston Villa vs Liverpool with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Aston Villa vs Liverpool
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has Aston Villa at +0.25, a slight expected spread in favour of the home side. Villa’s recent goal difference across the last three (scored 3, conceded 5) is marginally worse than Liverpool’s (scored 6, conceded 5), but Villa’s stronger recent xG balance and home advantage tilt things their way. That aligns with the nearly even win probabilities, with a narrow home edge reflecting two strong attacks and defences that can be got at.

Final Prediction

Villa’s slight statistical edge, combined with their stronger underlying numbers and home advantage, nudges this finely balanced clash in their direction. Liverpool still carry enough punch to make it a genuine 50-50 on the pitch, but the hosts look marginally better equipped in both boxes. The key factor to watch will be how well each side manages transitions – whoever controls those chaotic moments is likely to walk away with a Champions League–shaping result.

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