Premier League 2024-2025: Newcastle vs Chelsea Prediction - 11 May 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Newcastle

Home Team
51%
VS

Chelsea

Away Team
25%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 70%
Under 2.5: 30%
Goal: 65%
No Goal: 35%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Liverpool 35 25 7 3 81 35 46 82
2 Arsenal 35 18 13 4 64 31 33 67
3 Man City 35 19 7 9 67 43 24 64
4 Newcastle 35 19 6 10 66 45 21 63
5 Chelsea 35 18 9 8 62 41 21 63
6 Nott'm Forest 35 18 7 10 54 42 12 61
7 Aston Villa 35 17 9 9 55 49 6 60
8 Bournemouth 35 14 11 10 55 42 13 53
9 Brentford 35 15 7 13 62 53 9 52
10 Brighton 35 13 13 9 57 56 1 52
11 Fulham 35 14 9 12 50 47 3 51
12 Crystal Palace 35 11 13 11 44 48 -4 46
13 Wolves 35 12 5 18 51 62 -11 41
14 Everton 35 8 15 12 36 43 -7 39
15 Man United 35 10 9 16 42 51 -9 39
16 Tottenham 35 11 5 19 63 57 6 38
17 West Ham 35 9 10 16 40 59 -19 37
18 Ipswich 35 4 10 21 35 76 -41 22
19 Leicester 35 5 6 24 29 76 -47 21
20 Southampton 35 2 5 28 25 82 -57 11

Recent Trends

Newcastle D W L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Ipswich (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Man United (Goals: 4 - 1)

Chelsea W W W D D

  • Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Ipswich (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Newcastle

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.96
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.44
# Clean Sheets: 2

Chelsea

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.07
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.43
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Newcastle and Chelsea is tipped in favor of the home side, with a 51.0% probability of Newcastle claiming victory. The game is also expected to see plenty of action, with a 70.0% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored. Newcastle currently holds the 4th position in the Premier League standings, while Chelsea is closely behind in 5th place, both with 63 points, making this an exciting and potentially pivotal match in the race for a Champions League spot.

Match Analysis

In the recent trios of games, Newcastle has shown a mixed bag of results. They secured a solid 3-0 win against Ipswich at home but followed it with a disappointing 1-4 loss to Aston Villa. Their resilience was evident in the 1-1 draw away at Brighton. Newcastle's offensive power is highlighted by their impressive average of 3.6 goals scored per game in their last five matches, showcasing their capability to breach defenses effectively. Defensively, they have maintained two clean sheets in their last five outings, indicating a reasonably solid backline. Chelsea, on the other hand, is riding high on a three-game winning streak, including an impressive 3-1 victory over league leaders Liverpool. Their recent form also includes a 1-0 win against Everton and a 2-1 triumph over Fulham. However, Chelsea's average of 0.6 goals scored per game in the last five matches suggests their attack has not been consistently prolific. Defensively, they have been sturdy, with two clean sheets to their name, but their average of 1.4 goals conceded per game implies potential vulnerabilities.

Final Prediction

Newcastle's home advantage, coupled with their potent attacking form, gives them a slight edge in this matchup. Their ability to score goals consistently could prove decisive against a Chelsea side that has struggled to maintain a high-scoring output. A key factor to watch during the game will be Newcastle's offensive execution, as their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities could seal an important victory in their push for a Champions League spot.

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