Premier League 2024-2025: Southampton vs Fulham Prediction - 26 Apr 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Southampton

Home Team
8%
VS

Fulham

Away Team
84%
Draw: 8%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Liverpool 33 24 7 2 75 31 44 79
2 Arsenal 34 18 13 3 63 29 34 67
3 Man City 34 18 7 9 66 43 23 61
4 Nott'm Forest 33 18 6 9 53 39 14 60
5 Newcastle 33 18 5 10 62 44 18 59
6 Chelsea 33 16 9 8 58 40 18 57
7 Aston Villa 34 16 9 9 54 49 5 57
8 Bournemouth 33 13 10 10 52 40 12 49
9 Fulham 33 13 9 11 48 45 3 48
10 Brighton 33 12 12 9 53 53 0 48
11 Brentford 33 13 7 13 56 50 6 46
12 Crystal Palace 34 11 12 11 43 47 -4 45
13 Everton 33 8 14 11 34 40 -6 38
14 Man United 33 10 8 15 38 46 -8 38
15 Wolves 33 11 5 17 48 61 -13 38
16 Tottenham 33 11 4 18 61 51 10 37
17 West Ham 33 9 9 15 37 55 -18 36
18 Ipswich 33 4 9 20 33 71 -38 21
19 Leicester 33 4 6 23 27 73 -46 18
20 Southampton 33 2 5 26 24 78 -54 11

Recent Trends

Southampton D L L D L

  • Last Match: D vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 2)

Fulham L L W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Southampton

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.70
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.34
# Clean Sheets: 0

Fulham

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.25
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.65
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Southampton and Fulham is heavily skewed in favor of the away team, with Fulham holding an 84.0% probability of winning. Southampton, currently at the bottom of the Premier League standings in 20th place, faces a daunting challenge against 9th-placed Fulham. The match is also predicted to feature over 2.5 goals, with a 62.0% probability of surpassing this threshold.

Match Analysis

Southampton enters this fixture in dire form, having failed to secure a win in their last three matches. They managed a 1-1 draw against West Ham but suffered defeats against Aston Villa and Tottenham, conceding three goals in each loss. With an average of only 0.6 goals scored and 2.6 goals conceded per game in their last five outings, the Saints' defensive frailties are glaring. Their lack of clean sheets further underscores their struggles at the back. Fulham, on the other hand, has shown more promise despite mixed results in their recent games. They secured an impressive 3-2 victory over Liverpool, although they suffered narrow losses to Chelsea and Bournemouth. Fulham's average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded per game shows a more balanced, albeit inconsistent, performance. They have also managed to keep one clean sheet in their last five matches, indicating a slightly more resilient defense compared to Southampton.

Final Prediction

Fulham's higher probability of winning and better recent form gives them a clear edge in this encounter. Their ability to score against high-caliber opponents like Liverpool demonstrates their attacking prowess, which could prove decisive against a defensively vulnerable Southampton. A key factor to watch in this match will be Fulham's ability to capitalize on Southampton's defensive lapses to secure a decisive victory.

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