Serie A 2024-2025: Empoli vs Lazio Prediction - 4 May 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Empoli

Home Team
10%
VS

Lazio

Away Team
80%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Napoli 34 22 8 4 54 25 29 74
2 Inter 34 21 8 5 72 33 39 71
3 Atalanta 34 19 8 7 67 31 36 65
4 Juventus 34 16 14 4 51 31 20 62
5 Bologna 34 16 13 5 52 37 15 61
6 Roma 34 17 9 8 49 32 17 60
7 Lazio 34 17 9 8 57 45 12 60
8 Fiorentina 34 17 8 9 53 34 19 59
9 Milan 34 15 9 10 53 38 15 54
10 Torino 34 10 13 11 38 39 -1 43
11 Como 34 11 9 14 44 48 -4 42
12 Udinese 34 11 8 15 36 48 -12 41
13 Genoa 34 9 12 13 29 41 -12 39
14 Cagliari 34 8 9 17 35 49 -14 33
15 Verona 34 9 5 20 30 62 -32 32
16 Parma 34 6 14 14 40 53 -13 32
17 Lecce 34 6 9 19 24 56 -32 27
18 Venezia 34 4 13 17 27 48 -21 25
19 Empoli 34 4 13 17 27 54 -27 25
20 Monza 34 2 9 23 25 59 -34 15

Recent Trends

Empoli L D L D D

  • Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Venezia (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 1 - 1)

Lazio D W D W D

  • Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Empoli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.61
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.81
# Clean Sheets: 1

Lazio

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.16
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.33
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Serie A match between Empoli and Lazio forecasts a dominant victory for Lazio with an 80% probability of winning. Empoli's chances are slim at just 10%, while the likelihood of a draw also stands at 10%. The game is expected to remain under 2.5 goals, with a 47% chance of exceeding this threshold. Lazio currently sits in 7th place with 60 points, striving for a potential European spot, while Empoli is in a precarious 19th position, fighting against relegation.

Match Analysis

Empoli's recent performances have been challenging. They have yet to secure a victory in their last three matches, drawing once against Venezia and suffering defeats to Fiorentina and Napoli. Their attack has been lackluster, averaging 0.4 goals scored in their last five games, while their defense has been porous, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per match. Despite an average expected goals scored of 0.614, they have struggled to convert opportunities into goals, managing only one clean sheet in five games. In contrast, Lazio has shown more resilience, with a recent win over Genoa and draws against Parma and Roma. They have been slightly more efficient in front of goal, averaging 1.0 goal per game over their last five matches. Defensively, Lazio has also been more robust, conceding an average of 1.2 goals and achieving two clean sheets. Their average expected goals scored stands at 1.156, indicating a more potent attacking threat compared to Empoli.

Final Prediction

Lazio's stronger form and statistical edge in both attack and defense give them a clear advantage in this matchup. Their ability to maintain clean sheets and capitalize on scoring opportunities will be crucial against an Empoli side that has struggled defensively. A key factor to watch will be whether Empoli can defy recent trends and disrupt Lazio's rhythm, potentially making the game more competitive than anticipated.

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