Serie A 2024-2025: Fiorentina vs Atalanta Prediction - 30 Mar 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Fiorentina

Home Team
11%
VS

Atalanta

Away Team
79%
Draw: 11%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 29 19 7 3 65 27 38 64
2 Napoli 29 18 7 4 45 23 22 61
3 Atalanta 29 17 7 5 63 28 35 58
4 Bologna 29 14 11 4 49 34 15 53
5 Juventus 29 13 13 3 45 28 17 52
6 Lazio 29 15 6 8 50 41 9 51
7 Roma 29 14 7 8 44 30 14 49
8 Fiorentina 29 14 6 9 46 30 16 48
9 Milan 29 13 8 8 44 33 11 47
10 Udinese 29 11 7 11 35 39 -4 40
11 Torino 29 9 11 9 34 34 0 38
12 Genoa 29 8 11 10 28 37 -9 35
13 Como 29 7 8 14 35 46 -11 29
14 Verona 29 9 2 18 29 58 -29 29
15 Cagliari 29 6 8 15 28 44 -16 26
16 Lecce 29 6 7 16 21 48 -27 25
17 Parma 29 5 10 14 35 49 -14 25
18 Empoli 29 4 10 15 23 46 -23 22
19 Venezia 29 3 11 15 23 42 -19 20
20 Monza 29 2 9 18 24 49 -25 15

Recent Trends

Fiorentina W L W L L

  • Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Verona (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 2)

Atalanta L W D W D

  • Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Venezia (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Empoli (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Fiorentina

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.83
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.03
# Clean Sheets: 2

Atalanta

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.98
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.25
# Clean Sheets: 4

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Fiorentina and Atalanta sees the visiting team heavily favored to secure a victory with a 79.0% probability. In contrast, Fiorentina's chances stand at just 11.0%, and the likelihood of a draw mirrors this figure at 11.0%. With Atalanta sitting comfortably in 3rd place in Serie A, they have the upper hand against 8th-placed Fiorentina. The match is expected to see fewer than 2.5 goals, with a 50.0% probability for this outcome.

Match Analysis

Fiorentina has shown a mixed bag of results in their last three fixtures. They enjoyed a commanding 3-0 victory against Juventus at home and a narrow 1-0 win over Lecce, yet suffered a 2-1 defeat to Napoli away. Their recent form suggests resilience at home, with two clean sheets and an average of 1.8 goals scored over the last five games. However, their expected goals metric is notably lower at 0.826, indicating a potential struggle to consistently create clear-cut chances. Atalanta, on the other hand, has displayed formidable form, especially in their 4-0 away demolition of Juventus. Despite a goalless draw with Venezia and a 2-0 loss to league leaders Inter, their offensive prowess is undeniable, averaging 3.2 goals in their last five matches. Impressively, they have registered four clean sheets in this period, showcasing defensive solidity. Their expected goals are significantly higher at 1.976, reflecting their ability to create numerous scoring opportunities.

Final Prediction

Atalanta's edge over Fiorentina stems from their superior goal-scoring form and defensive robustness, as evidenced by their recent performances and advanced metrics. One key factor to watch in this encounter is Atalanta's ability to capitalize on their chances, given their high expected goals rate, which could prove decisive in securing all three points.

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