Serie A 2024-2025: Lazio vs Roma Prediction - 13 Apr 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Lazio

Home Team
37%
VS

Roma

Away Team
38%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 31 20 8 3 69 30 39 68
2 Napoli 31 19 8 4 48 25 23 65
3 Atalanta 31 17 7 7 63 30 33 58
4 Bologna 31 15 12 4 51 35 16 57
5 Juventus 31 14 14 3 47 29 18 56
6 Lazio 31 16 7 8 52 42 10 55
7 Roma 31 15 8 8 46 31 15 53
8 Fiorentina 31 15 7 9 49 32 17 52
9 Milan 31 13 9 9 47 37 10 48
10 Torino 31 9 13 9 36 36 0 40
11 Udinese 31 11 7 13 36 42 -6 40
12 Genoa 31 9 11 11 29 38 -9 38
13 Como 31 8 9 14 39 48 -9 33
14 Verona 31 9 4 18 30 59 -29 31
15 Cagliari 31 7 9 15 31 44 -13 30
16 Parma 31 5 12 14 37 51 -14 27
17 Lecce 31 6 8 17 22 50 -28 26
18 Empoli 31 4 12 15 24 47 -23 24
19 Venezia 31 3 12 16 24 44 -20 21
20 Monza 31 2 9 20 25 55 -30 15

Recent Trends

Lazio W D L D W

  • Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 2 - 1)

Roma D W W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Empoli (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Como (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lazio

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.05
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.90
# Clean Sheets: 1

Roma

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.22
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.56
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming Serie A clash between Lazio and Roma is predicted to be a closely contested affair, with a slight edge given to Roma with a 38.0% probability of winning, compared to Lazio's 37.0%. The likelihood of a draw stands at 26.0%. This tight race mirrors their current league standings, where Lazio sits in 6th place with 55 points, while Roma is close behind in 7th place with 53 points. The match is expected to feature fewer goals, with a 46.0% probability of being under 2.5 goals.

Match Analysis

Lazio's recent form has been a mixed bag, with a significant 5-0 loss to Bologna followed by a draw against Torino and a narrow victory over Atalanta. Their attack has been relatively consistent, averaging 2.0 goals per game over the last five matches, but defensive lapses have led to an average of 1.4 goals conceded per game. Notably, their expected goals data suggests they have the potential to score slightly more, with an average of 2.054 expected goals. Roma, on the other hand, has shown resilience, securing two wins and a draw in their last three games. Their defensive solidity has been a standout feature, conceding just 0.2 goals on average in the last five matches, bolstered by three clean sheets. Offensively, they have been effective, with an expected goals average of 2.216, indicating their capability to create scoring opportunities.

Final Prediction

Roma's defensive sturdiness gives them a slight edge in this encounter, particularly if they can maintain their recent form of keeping clean sheets. A key factor to watch during the game will be whether Lazio can break through Roma's defense, or if Roma will capitalize on their superior expected goals metric to secure an important victory in their pursuit of a higher league position.

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