Serie A 2024-2025: Napoli vs Genoa Prediction - 11 May 2025

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Napoli

Home Team
94%
VS

Genoa

Away Team
2%
Draw: 4%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 45%
No Goal: 55%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Napoli 35 23 8 4 55 25 30 77
2 Inter 35 22 8 5 73 33 40 74
3 Atalanta 35 20 8 7 71 31 40 68
4 Juventus 35 16 15 4 52 32 20 63
5 Roma 35 18 9 8 50 32 18 63
6 Lazio 35 18 9 8 58 45 13 63
7 Bologna 35 16 14 5 53 38 15 62
8 Fiorentina 35 17 8 10 53 35 18 59
9 Milan 35 16 9 10 55 39 16 57
10 Como 35 12 9 14 45 48 -3 45
11 Torino 35 10 14 11 39 40 -1 44
12 Udinese 35 12 8 15 38 49 -11 44
13 Genoa 35 9 12 14 30 43 -13 39
14 Cagliari 35 8 9 18 36 51 -15 33
15 Verona 35 9 5 21 30 63 -33 32
16 Parma 35 6 14 15 40 54 -14 32
17 Lecce 35 6 9 20 24 57 -33 27
18 Venezia 35 4 14 17 28 49 -21 26
19 Empoli 35 4 13 18 27 55 -28 25
20 Monza 35 2 9 24 25 63 -38 15

Recent Trends

Napoli W W W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Monza (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Empoli (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 1)

Genoa L L L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Verona (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Napoli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.80
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.16
# Clean Sheets: 4

Genoa

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.87
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.30
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Napoli is heavily favored to win their upcoming match against Genoa with a commanding 94.0% probability. Positioned at the top of the Serie A standings, Napoli is expected to triumph at home, while Genoa sits at 13th place, making them the underdogs with only a 2.0% chance of victory. The game is likely to feature fewer than 2.5 goals, with an expected scoreline favoring Napoli in a low-scoring affair.

Match Analysis

Napoli has been in scintillating form, securing victories in their last three matches against Lecce, Torino, and Monza without conceding a single goal. This defensive solidity is underscored by their average of 0.6 goals conceded over the past five games, coupled with four clean sheets. Offensively, Napoli has been efficient, scoring an average of 2.0 goals per game during this period, supported by an expected goals average of 1.798. Conversely, Genoa has struggled recently, suffering three consecutive losses against Milan, Como, and Lazio. They have managed only a single goal in these matches, reflecting their difficulties in finding the back of the net. Genoa's offensive woes are evident in their meager average of 0.2 goals scored per game in the last five outings. Defensively, they have conceded an average of 0.8 goals each game, but their lack of firepower will be a significant concern against the league leaders.

Final Prediction

Napoli's dominance both defensively and offensively gives them a clear edge in this matchup. Their recent form, coupled with their strong league position, suggests that they will likely control the game. A key factor to watch will be Napoli's ability to break down Genoa's defense, as their efficient attacking play has been a hallmark of their success this season.

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