Rotterdam Netherlands Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Aleksandar Vukic vs Stan Wawrinka: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Aleksandar Vukic

Rank: #91
58%
VS

Stan Wawrinka

Rank: #113
42%
Expected Total Games: 23.5
Predicted Winner: Aleksandar Vukic

Player Metrics

Aleksandar Vukic

Form Index: 30.6
ELO Rating: 736.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1584.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.2
Clay: 3.9
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 85.4
Return Rating: 44.2

Stan Wawrinka

Form Index: 53.2
ELO Rating: 509.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1544.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.5
Clay: 3.6
Grass: 3.5
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 89.6

Recent Matches

Aleksandar Vukic

  • Last Match: vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Tommy Paul (0-2) hard Adelaide 62 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Andrea Vavassori (2-0) hard Adelaide 105 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (2-0) hard Adelaide 113 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Jacob Fearnley (2-1) hard Adelaide 133 min

Stan Wawrinka

  • Last Match: vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Montpellier 107 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Hamad Medjedovic (2-0) hard Montpellier 98 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Taylor Fritz (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Arthur Gea (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Laslo Djere (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Aleksandar Vukic
vs
0
Stan Wawrinka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round of 32 match in Rotterdam (Netherlands) is on indoor hard courts at an ATP 500-level event. The model favors Aleksandar Vukic to win with a 58.00% probability over Stan Wawrinka at 42.00%, and projects a relatively short contest of about 23.48 total games.

Match Analysis

Aleksandar Vukic arrives ranked 91 with an Elo of 736.63 and a form index of 30.58; he shows no tournament fatigue and posts a surface strength index of 6.20. His mean serve index is strong at 85.43 while his mean return index sits at 44.17. Stan Wawrinka is ranked 113 with a lower Elo of 509.36 but a higher form index of 53.19, no on-site fatigue, and a surface strength index of 5.50. Wawrinka’s mean serve index is notably higher at 97.02 and his mean return index is 89.64. The differences in serve and return profiles are material: Wawrinka’s mean serve exceeds Vukic’s by roughly 11.6 points, and his mean return is about 45.5 points higher. Those gaps suggest Wawrinka can both generate more free points on serve and put pressure on Vukic’s service games. Conversely, Vukic’s higher Elo and better ranking indicate a recent body of results that the prediction model values; his very solid serve index is also a key asset. Recent form shows Vukic with one win (Andrea Vavassori) and two losses (Tommy Paul, Thiago Tirante, the latter a straight-sets defeat at the Australian Open), while Wawrinka has one win (Hamad Medjedovic) and two defeats (Felix Auger-Aliassime, Taylor Fritz), illustrating ups-and-downs for both.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.5 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Aleksandar Vukic versus Stan Wawrinka. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Aleksandar Vukic versus Stan Wawrinka. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Aleksandar Vukic - Stan Wawrinka) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Aleksandar Vukic versus Stan Wawrinka. Positive values indicate Aleksandar Vukic winning more games, negative values indicate Stan Wawrinka winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Aleksandar Vukic versus Stan Wawrinka. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this matchup is 16.86 total aces, and the expected double faults are 5.74. On medium-paced hard courts, these predicted aces are plausible: the surface favors a balanced number of aces compared with grass or clay. Given Wawrinka’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces, while double faults are expected to remain modest.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Aleksandar Vukic versus Stan Wawrinka. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Aleksandar Vukic versus Stan Wawrinka. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Aleksandar Vukic versus Stan Wawrinka. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Aleksandar Vukic versus Stan Wawrinka. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Vukic’s edge in the model stems from his higher Elo and ranking plus a very competent serve index, which offsets Wawrinka’s superior serve/return metrics and better short-term form. The decisive factor to watch will be how Wawrinka’s return strength impacts Vukic’s service games—break-point conversion in those exchanges will likely determine the outcome.

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