Bundesliga 2025-2026: Augsburg vs Heidenheim Prediction - 15 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Augsburg

Home Team
58%
VS

Heidenheim

Away Team
20%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 26.3

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 21 17 3 1 79 19 60 54
2 Dortmund 21 14 6 1 43 20 23 48
3 Hoffenheim 21 13 3 5 44 28 16 42
4 RB Leipzig 21 12 3 6 40 28 12 39
5 Stuttgart 21 12 3 6 38 28 10 39
6 Leverkusen 20 11 3 6 39 27 12 36
7 Freiburg 21 8 6 7 32 33 -1 30
8 Ein Frankfurt 21 7 7 7 41 46 -5 28
9 Union Berlin 21 6 7 8 26 34 -8 25
10 FC Koln 21 6 5 10 30 34 -4 23
11 Hamburg 20 5 7 8 21 29 -8 22
12 M'gladbach 21 5 7 9 25 34 -9 22
13 Augsburg 21 6 4 11 24 39 -15 22
14 Mainz 21 5 6 10 25 33 -8 21
15 Wolfsburg 21 5 4 12 29 44 -15 19
16 Werder Bremen 21 4 7 10 22 39 -17 19
17 St Pauli 21 4 5 12 20 35 -15 17
18 Heidenheim 21 3 4 14 19 47 -28 13

Recent Trends

Augsburg L W W D D

  • Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Freiburg (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 1)

Heidenheim L L L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Hamburg (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Augsburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.46
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.71
# Clean Sheets: 0

Heidenheim

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.54
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.82
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Augsburg are favoured to take all three points, with a 58.0% probability of a home win against bottom‑placed Heidenheim, who have just a 20.0% chance. The model also leans toward goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 60.0% likelihood. In the table, Augsburg sit 13th on 22 points, while Heidenheim are 18th with 13 points and staring at relegation.

Match Analysis

Augsburg come into this one with confidence after two wins in their last three, including an impressive 2-1 away victory at Bayern Munich and a 2-1 home win over St Pauli, offset only by a 2-0 defeat at Mainz. They have been competitive in every recent match, creating 14, 12 and 16 shots respectively, and showing they can hurt both top and bottom sides. Despite no clean sheets in their last five, they’ve kept scores relatively controlled, conceding on average just 0.8 goals per game in that span. Heidenheim, by contrast, are on a worrying run: three straight losses against Hamburg (0-2), Dortmund (2-3) and RB Leipzig (0-3). The pattern is clear – they concede regularly (at least two in each of those matches) and haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last five. Their advanced numbers show 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded on average over the last five, supported by xG figures of 1.536 for and 1.824 against, suggesting they tend to give up slightly better chances than they create. For Augsburg, the advanced metrics show 1.4 goals scored and 1.4600000000000002 xG per game over the last five, but 1.7100000000000002 xG conceded, hinting that opponents are still finding good openings against them. Even so, their recent results – and home advantage – tilt the balance in their favour against a Heidenheim side that is conceding too many chances and sits bottom of the Bundesliga.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Augsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
Heidenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is backed at 60.0%, and the recent scorelines support that lean. Two of Augsburg’s last three games finished 2-1 (both over 2.5), with only the 2-0 defeat at Mainz staying under 2.5. For Heidenheim, one of their last three went over 2.5 (the 3-2 loss to Dortmund), while the 0-2 vs Hamburg and 0-3 vs RB Leipzig were under 2.5 but still showed defensive vulnerability. Across the last five games, both sides average 1.4 goals scored, while Augsburg concede 0.8 and Heidenheim 1.8, pointing to a decent chance of at least three goals combined. Add in the xG profiles (around 1.5 xG for each and higher xG conceded for both), and the attacking and defensive balance tilts this match toward another over 2.5 rather than an under 2.5 outcome.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Augsburg
Corners in last 5 matches
Heidenheim
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a fairly active game, with expected total corners at 9.87. Augsburg’s last three produced 10, 10 and 12 corners respectively (4-6 vs Mainz, 5-5 vs St Pauli, 3-9 vs Bayern), showing matches that open up and generate plenty of set-piece situations at both ends. Heidenheim’s games have also been corner-heavy: 18 vs Hamburg (10-8), 15 vs Dortmund (3-12) and 4 vs RB Leipzig (4-0) – two very high totals and one quieter outing. Both teams tend to concede territory and shots, which naturally leads to more corners for opponents, while Augsburg’s recent attacking intent, especially against Bayern and St Pauli, suggests they will also win their share. That aligns well with a predicted corners figure close to double digits.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Augsburg
Shots in last 5 matches
Heidenheim
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction stands at 26.3 expected shots in the match, in line with what both sides have been producing. Augsburg’s last three have seen them involved in games with 24, 29 and 31 shots (14-10 vs Mainz, 12-17 vs St Pauli, 16-15 vs Bayern), indicating a relatively open style. Heidenheim’s recent matches registered 34 shots vs Hamburg (20-14), 31 vs Dortmund (12-19) and 18 vs Leipzig (7-11), again suggesting they allow plenty of attempts. Given that both teams have attacking xG around 1.5 and defensive xG conceded above 1.7, a total in the mid‑20s for expected shots looks realistic. Frequent attempts on goal from both sides should help support the earlier over 2.5 and goal predictions.

Final Prediction

Augsburg have the edge thanks to better recent form, home advantage, and an opponent in Heidenheim who are leaking goals and sit bottom of the table. While neither side is rock solid defensively, Augsburg’s ability to create chances against strong opposition stands out. A key factor to watch will be how often Heidenheim can escape Augsburg’s pressure and turn their own 1.4-goals-per-game attacking output into something more than just consolation.

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