NBA Title Simulations
We simulate the entire remaining NBA season 10,000 times on our team Elo ratings — every regular-season game, the play-in, and every best-of-7 playoff series. What comes out is each team's chance of winning the championship, and the playoff bracket we expect — series by series, score by score.
No fresh forecast right now
The season simulation refreshes daily while the NBA season is running. Check back when the season tips off — or explore today's game predictions.
How these forecasts work
10,000 seasons
Every remaining regular-season game, the play-in and all best-of-7 series are sampled from win probabilities built on our team Elo ratings — home court, back-to-backs and the 2-2-1-1-1 format included.
Results lock in
Played games are facts, not guesses: a series our model sees at 3-1 is resumed from 3-1. Probabilities sharpen with every final buzzer.
Honest odds
Backtested over 9 seasons: the eventual champion sat in our top 5 in 80% of forecasts, and stage-by-stage probabilities track observed frequencies. No hype — calibrated numbers. See the full track record →
What does "most likely 4-1" mean?
Within the simulations where this exact matchup happens, we count every series score. "OKC in 5 · 32%" means the favourite closed it 4-1 more often than any other single score — it is the modal outcome, not a certainty.
Why do some series show "62% of sims"?
Before the field is set, each bracket slot can host different matchups. The card shows the most likely one and how often it occurred; tap it to see the alternatives.
Why don't the title odds just follow the standings?
The simulation prices the whole path: seeding, play-in risk, home court and who you are likely to meet. A strong team in a brutal half of the bracket can have lower title odds than a slightly weaker team with a kinder draw.
How often do the numbers update?
Daily, on our prediction run: yesterday's results are locked in and the rest of the season is re-simulated from scratch.