Monte Carlo Engine

NBA Title Simulations

We simulate the entire remaining NBA season 10,000 times on our team Elo ratings: every regular-season game, the play-in, and every best-of-7 playoff series. What comes out is each team's chance of winning the championship, and the playoff bracket we expect, series by series, score by score.

Updated Oct 28, 17:15 10,000 simulated seasons Calibrated probabilities How it works

Predicted Playoff Bracket 2026-27

Projected bracket

Tap any series for the full score distribution (matchup odds shown while the field is still open).

West · First Round
West · Semifinals
West · Conf Finals
NBA Finals
East · Conf Finals
East · Semifinals
East · First Round

Championship Odds 2026-27

All 30 teams
Oklahoma City Thunder Thunder 22% title chance
Houston Rockets Rockets 10% title chance
Minnesota Timberwolves Timberwolves 8.0% title chance
# Team Play-in Playoffs Conf SF Conf Finals Finals Champion
1 Thunder OKC · 4-0 · West 4% 99% 74% 50% 32% 22%
2 Rockets HOU · 4-0 · West 13% 94% 58% 31% 16% 10%
3 Timberwolves MIN · 3-1 · West 21% 90% 52% 27% 14% 8.0%
4 Pistons DET · 3-1 · East 14% 93% 58% 33% 18% 7.9%
5 Celtics BOS · 3-1 · East 19% 89% 53% 29% 16% 7.1%
6 Spurs SAS · 2-2 · West 25% 87% 48% 23% 11% 6.4%
7 Lakers LAL · 3-1 · West 26% 86% 44% 21% 9% 5.0%
8 Blazers POR · 3-0 · West 24% 86% 45% 21% 9% 5.0%
9 Hornets CHA · 3-1 · East 26% 84% 45% 23% 11% 5.0%
10 Knicks NYK · 1-3 · East 31% 79% 42% 23% 11% 4.3%
11 Cavaliers CLE · 2-1 · East 31% 78% 40% 20% 10% 3.8%
12 Raptors TOR · 2-1 · East 31% 78% 40% 20% 9% 3.5%
13 Hawks ATL · 2-2 · East 31% 78% 38% 18% 9% 3.5%
14 76ers PHI · 3-1 · East 30% 78% 39% 18% 9% 3.2%
15 Magic ORL · 1-2 · East 41% 53% 21% 9% 4% 1.5%
16 Nuggets DEN · 1-2 · West 45% 48% 17% 7% 3% 1.1%
17 Clippers LAC · 1-2 · West 44% 54% 19% 7% 2% 1.1%
18 Grizzlies MEM · 4-0 · West 44% 58% 19% 7% 2% <1%
19 Suns PHX · 1-2 · West 42% 36% 10% 4% 1% <1%
20 Warriors GSW · 1-3 · West 35% 22% 6% 2% <1% <1%
21 Bucks MIL · 1-3 · East 29% 19% 5% 2% <1% <1%
22 Pacers IND · 2-2 · East 34% 23% 7% 2% <1% <1%
23 Pelicans NOP · 0-3 · West 22% 12% 2% <1% <1% <1%
24 Mavericks DAL · 2-2 · West 35% 22% 5% 1% <1% <1%
25 Heat MIA · 0-4 · East 25% 15% 4% 1% <1% <1%
26 Bulls CHI · 1-3 · East 21% 11% 3% <1% <1% <1%
27 Wizards WAS · 2-2 · East 29% 18% 5% 1% <1% <1%
28 Jazz UTA · 1-3 · West 12% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1%
29 Nets BKN · 0-4 · East 8% 3% <1% <1% <1% 0%
30 Kings SAC · 0-4 · West 7% 2% <1% <1% <1% 0%

How these forecasts work

10,000 seasons

Every remaining regular-season game, the play-in and all best-of-7 series are sampled from win probabilities built on our team Elo ratings (home court, back-to-backs and the 2-2-1-1-1 format included).

Results lock in

Played games are facts, not guesses: a series our model sees at 3-1 is resumed from 3-1. Probabilities sharpen with every final buzzer.

Honest odds

Backtested over 9 seasons: the eventual champion sat in our top 5 in 80% of forecasts, and stage-by-stage probabilities track observed frequencies. No hype: calibrated numbers. See the full track record →

What does "most likely 4-1" mean?

Within the simulations where this exact matchup happens, we count every series score. "OKC in 5 · 32%" means the favourite closed it 4-1 more often than any other single score: it is the modal outcome, not a certainty.

Why do some series show "62% of sims"?

Before the field is set, each bracket slot can host different matchups. The card shows the most likely one and how often it occurred. Tap it to see the alternatives.

Why don't the title odds just follow the standings?

The simulation prices the whole path: seeding, play-in risk, home court and who you are likely to meet. A strong team in a brutal half of the bracket can have lower title odds than a slightly weaker team with a kinder draw.

How often do the numbers update?

Daily, on our prediction run: yesterday's results are locked in and the rest of the season is re-simulated from scratch.