Bundesliga 2025-2026: Augsburg vs Hoffenheim Prediction - 10 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Augsburg

Home Team
27%
VS

Hoffenheim

Away Team
51%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 63%
Under 2.5: 37%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 26.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 28 23 4 1 100 27 73 73
2 Dortmund 28 19 7 2 60 28 32 64
3 RB Leipzig 28 16 5 7 55 36 19 53
4 Stuttgart 28 16 5 7 56 38 18 53
5 Hoffenheim 28 15 5 8 55 41 14 50
6 Leverkusen 28 14 7 7 58 39 19 49
7 Ein Frankfurt 28 10 9 9 52 53 -1 39
8 Freiburg 28 10 7 11 41 47 -6 37
9 Mainz 28 8 9 11 35 43 -8 33
10 Union Berlin 28 8 8 12 32 47 -15 32
11 Augsburg 28 9 5 14 34 51 -17 32
12 Hamburg 28 7 10 11 32 41 -9 31
13 M'gladbach 28 7 9 12 35 48 -13 30
14 Werder Bremen 28 7 7 14 31 49 -18 28
15 FC Koln 28 6 9 13 40 49 -9 27
16 St Pauli 28 6 7 15 25 45 -20 25
17 Wolfsburg 28 5 6 17 38 63 -25 21
18 Heidenheim 28 3 7 18 29 63 -34 16

Recent Trends

Augsburg D L L L W

  • Last Match: D vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 0)

Hoffenheim L L D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs St Pauli (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Augsburg

xG (avg) 1.63
xGA (avg) 1.91
Clean Sheets 1

Hoffenheim

xG (avg) 1.67
xGA (avg) 2.56
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Hoffenheim are favoured to take all three points, with a 51.0% probability of an away win compared to just 27.0% for Augsburg, who sit 11th on 32 points, while Hoffenheim occupy 5th place with 50 points and are pushing for the Champions League spots. The over 2.5 prediction is strong here, with a 63.0% chance of the game producing at least three goals.

Match Analysis

Augsburg come into this fixture on a three‑match winless run: a 1-1 draw at Hamburg followed home and away defeats to Stuttgart (2-5) and Dortmund (0-2). The recent pattern is of a side that can create and score – 3 goals in their last three games and an average of 1.8 goals scored across the last five – but they are often far too open at the back, conceding 1.6 goals per game in that same five‑match span and only one clean sheet. Their xG profile backs this up: 1.628 expected goals for and 1.908 against on average in the last five suggest they tend to concede the better chances. Hoffenheim’s recent form is also underwhelming, with back‑to‑back defeats against Mainz (1-2) and RB Leipzig (0-5) and a 1-1 home draw with Wolfsburg. However, they sit higher in the table for a reason: 55 goals scored in 28 league games and 15 wins show a side that usually finds ways to hurt opponents. Over the last five matches they mirror Augsburg’s attacking numbers at 1.8 goals scored per game, but their defence has been far shakier, conceding 2.8 on average with no clean sheets and an expected goals against figure of 2.562 – the kind of leaky back line that keeps opponents interested even when Hoffenheim are on top.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Augsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
Hoffenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points firmly towards an over 2.5 prediction, with a 63.0% probability of at least three goals. Two of Augsburg’s last three games have gone over 2.5 goals (2-5 vs Stuttgart, 1-1 vs Hamburg, 0-2 vs Dortmund), while for Hoffenheim one of their last three crossed the line (0-5 at Leipzig) with the other two finishing 1-1 and 1-2. Given both teams average 1.8 goals scored over their last five matches and both concede more than 1.5 per game, supported by xG figures of 1.628 and 1.674 for and 1.908 and 2.562 against, this fixture has all the ingredients for goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Augsburg
Corners in last 5 matches
Hoffenheim
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.21, suggesting a match around the 9–10 corners mark. Augsburg’s last three games produced corner counts of 2-9, 2-5 and 2-12, showing they concede plenty of territory and often allow opponents to rack up set-piece opportunities. Hoffenheim, meanwhile, have seen big corner numbers in their favour – 7-3 vs Mainz, 3-1 at Leipzig and a huge 16-4 against Wolfsburg – which supports a corners prediction of a reasonably busy afternoon from wide areas, particularly for the away side.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Augsburg
Shots in last 5 matches
Hoffenheim
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total sits at 26.0, in line with how both teams have been playing. Augsburg’s last three matches saw combined shot counts of 18-18 vs Hamburg, 13-13 vs Stuttgart and 7-16 vs Dortmund, indicating games regularly in the mid‑20s or higher. Hoffenheim’s recent outings have produced 16-9, 8-14 and 21-4 in shots, again supporting an aggressive, chance‑heavy script; that aligns well with their xG figures and makes this shots prediction of 26 look realistic for two sides who attack better than they defend.

Final Prediction

Hoffenheim’s superior league position, stronger overall attacking record and Augsburg’s fragile defence tilt this contest towards an away win, even if neither side is in sparkling form. The key factor to watch will be how Augsburg’s vulnerable back line handles Hoffenheim’s pressure: if the visitors turn their expected chances into goals, their European push should stay on track.

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