Bundesliga 2025-2026: Augsburg vs Stuttgart Prediction - 22 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Augsburg

Home Team
22%
VS

Stuttgart

Away Team
58%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 62%
No Goal: 38%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 26.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 26 21 4 1 93 25 68 67
2 Dortmund 26 17 7 2 55 26 29 58
3 Hoffenheim 26 15 5 6 54 34 20 50
4 Stuttgart 26 15 5 6 51 34 17 50
5 RB Leipzig 26 14 5 7 48 35 13 47
6 Leverkusen 26 13 6 7 49 33 16 45
7 Ein Frankfurt 26 10 8 8 49 49 0 38
8 Freiburg 26 9 7 10 37 43 -6 34
9 Union Berlin 26 8 7 11 31 42 -11 31
10 Augsburg 26 9 4 13 31 45 -14 31
11 Hamburg 26 7 9 10 29 37 -8 30
12 M'gladbach 26 7 7 12 30 43 -13 28
13 Mainz 26 6 9 11 31 41 -10 27
14 FC Koln 26 6 7 13 35 44 -9 25
15 Werder Bremen 26 6 7 13 29 47 -18 25
16 St Pauli 26 6 6 14 23 42 -19 24
17 Wolfsburg 26 5 6 15 35 56 -21 21
18 Heidenheim 26 3 5 18 24 58 -34 14

Recent Trends

Augsburg L L W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 0)

Stuttgart W D W D W

  • Last Match: W vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Mainz (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Heidenheim (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Augsburg

xG (avg) 1.42
xGA (avg) 1.48
Clean Sheets 2

Stuttgart

xG (avg) 1.91
xGA (avg) 2.12
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Stuttgart are clear favourites here, with a 58.0% chance of taking all three points away in Augsburg, who have just a 22.0% probability of a home win (draw at 20.0%). The visitors sit 4th in the Bundesliga on 50 points, level with 3rd-placed Hoffenheim, while Augsburg are 10th on 31 points and still glancing over their shoulder at the bottom half. The model leans towards an open game, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 62.0% and a strong expectation that both sides find the net.

Match Analysis

Augsburg come into this on the back of two tough away defeats and one solid home win. They were outclassed 2-0 at Dortmund and edged 2-1 at RB Leipzig, but the performances were competitive, especially in Leipzig where they matched shots (16-17) and actually led on corners. Back at home they beat FC Köln 2-0, limiting the visitors to 10 shots and keeping one of their two clean sheets in the last five matches. Their recent averages – 1.6 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded per game, with 1.42 expected goals (xG) for and 1.48 against – suggest a more balanced, resilient Augsburg than the season-long goal difference of -14 implies. Stuttgart, meanwhile, look like a side pushing hard for the Champions League spots. A 1-0 home win over RB Leipzig, a 2-2 draw away at Mainz and a commanding 4-0 demolition of Wolfsburg underline their firepower and their volatility at the back. They’ve hit 2.6 goals per game over the last five, with 1.906 xG, but they’re also conceding 1.6 per match and 2.122 xG, hinting at a defence that allows chances even when the scoreline flatters them. That combination – potent attack, shaky rearguard – is precisely why this match-up looks favourable for the visitors yet unlikely to be cagey.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Augsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
Stuttgart
Goals in last 5 matches
The model backs an over 2.5 prediction at 62.0%, and the recent scorelines support that. Two of Stuttgart’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (2-2 vs Mainz, 4-0 vs Wolfsburg), while two of Augsburg’s three stayed under (2-0 vs Köln, 0-2 at Dortmund) with only the 1-2 loss at Leipzig sneaking over. Given Augsburg’s recent 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded per match and Stuttgart’s 2.6 scored and 1.6 conceded, plus both sides producing around 1.9–1.4 xG for and roughly 1.5–2.1 xG against, the attacking intent on show makes over 2.5 the stronger call than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Augsburg
Corners in last 5 matches
Stuttgart
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total for this game is 10.14 predicted corners, which fits the pattern of recent outings. Augsburg’s last three matches produced corner totals of 14, 14 and 15, as they both concede territory to stronger opponents and attack directly when they can. Stuttgart’s games have seen 11, 11 and 10 corners, reflecting a front-foot style that regularly forces blocks and saves. With both teams willing to push numbers forward, this corners prediction around the 10-mark feels realistic for another open contest.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Augsburg
Shots in last 5 matches
Stuttgart
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model anticipates 26.55 expected shots in the match, again pointing towards a lively 90 minutes. Augsburg’s last three have seen combined shot counts of 23, 33 and 24, while Stuttgart’s have delivered 22, 29 and a huge 34 against Wolfsburg. That volume matches the underlying xG figures: Stuttgart generating nearly 1.9 xG and Augsburg around 1.4 xG per game recently implies enough shooting opportunities to justify a strong shots prediction in the mid‑20s.

Final Prediction

Stuttgart’s superior league position, sharper recent attack and higher scoring averages give them the edge, even away from home. Augsburg’s improved defensive numbers suggest they can compete, but sustaining that against a side averaging 2.6 goals in their last five will be a serious test. The key factor to watch will be how well Augsburg’s back line copes with Stuttgart’s relentless shot volume and whether the hosts can turn their own chances into goals often enough to stay in the game.

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