Bundesliga 2025-2026: Bayern Munich vs Ein Frankfurt Prediction - 21 Feb 2026
Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots
Bayern Munich
Home Team
99%
VS
Ein Frankfurt
Away Team
0%
Draw: 0%
Over 2.5:
78%
Under 2.5:
22%
Goal:
58%
No Goal:
42%
Expected Corners:
9.8
Expected Shots:
28.1
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 22 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 82 | 19 | 63 | 57 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 22 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 47 | 20 | 27 | 51 |
| 3 | Hoffenheim | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 28 | 19 | 45 |
| 4 | Stuttgart | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 41 | 29 | 12 | 42 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 30 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Leverkusen | 21 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 43 | 27 | 16 | 39 |
| 7 | Ein Frankfurt | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 31 |
| 8 | Freiburg | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 30 |
| 9 | Hamburg | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 25 |
| 10 | Union Berlin | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 28 | 37 | -9 | 25 |
| 11 | Augsburg | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 25 |
| 12 | FC Koln | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 23 |
| 13 | M'gladbach | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 22 |
| 14 | Mainz | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 21 |
| 15 | Wolfsburg | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 20 |
| 16 | Werder Bremen | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 22 | 42 | -20 | 19 |
| 17 | St Pauli | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 39 | -19 | 17 |
| 18 | Heidenheim | 22 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 48 | -29 | 13 |
Recent Trends
Bayern Munich
- Last Match: vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 3 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 5 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Hamburg (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 5 - 1)
Ein Frankfurt
- Last Match: vs M'gladbach (Goals: 3 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 4th Last Match: vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 5th Last Match: vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 3 - 3)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Bayern Munich
Average Expected Goals (xG):
3.89
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.31
# Clean Sheets:
1
Ein Frankfurt
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.79
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.33
# Clean Sheets:
1
Key Prediction Insights
Bayern Munich are overwhelming favourites at home, with a 99.0% probability of victory against Eintracht Frankfurt. The model expects a clear home win for the league leaders (1st with 57 points) over a mid‑table Frankfurt side sitting 7th on 31 points. The over 2.5 prediction is “over”, with a 78.0% probability of at least three goals in the match.
Match Analysis
Bayern come into this fixture in typically ruthless form: a 3-0 away win at Werder Bremen, a 5-1 demolition of Hoffenheim, and only a slight stumble in a 2-2 draw at Hamburg. Across those three games they’ve scored 10 goals and dominated territorially, especially at home where they produced 27 shots and 8 corners against Hoffenheim. The advanced numbers back up the eye test: over their last five games they average 3.8 goals scored per match, with an xG of 3.892, underlining a side that creates and finishes chances at an elite level, even if they’ve only kept one clean sheet in that period.
Frankfurt’s recent form is more mixed. They thrashed M’gladbach 3-0 at home but needed to grind out a 1-1 draw away at Union Berlin and fell 3-1 to Leverkusen despite matching them 11-11 on shots. The concern is defensive: they’ve conceded 2.8 goals per game over their last five matches, with an average xG against of 2.33, suggesting opponents are consistently generating good chances. Offensively, Frankfurt average just 1.4 goals and only 0.794 xG per game over that span, hinting that they may be slightly outperforming the quality of chances they create – a worrying sign when visiting the most prolific attack in the league.
Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction
Recent Goals Trends
Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5
Bayern Munich
Ein Frankfurt
The model strongly favours an over 2.5 prediction, with a 78.0% chance of the game producing at least three goals. Two of Bayern’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-0 vs Bremen, 5-1 vs Hoffenheim), with only the 2-2 draw also clearly above that line – in fact, all three Bayern games hit 3+ total goals. Frankfurt have seen 3+ goals in two of their last three (3-0 vs M’gladbach, 1-3 vs Leverkusen), with only the 1-1 at Union Berlin staying under 2.5. Bayern’s average of 3.8 scored and 1.4 conceded, plus their xG of 3.892 for and 1.31 against, combined with Frankfurt’s leaky defence (2.8 conceded on 2.33 xG against), all point firmly toward another high‑scoring encounter.
Corners Prediction
Recent Corners Trends
Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.
Bayern Munich
Ein Frankfurt
Corners Probability Distribution
Distribution
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
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The expected total corners for this match is 9.76, suggesting around 9–10 corners overall as the central corners prediction. Bayern’s last three outings produced corner counts of 4-2, 8-3 and 9-3, consistently showing a team that sustains pressure and racks up corners at home and away. Frankfurt’s recent matches saw 2-8, 2-5 and 8-3 in corners, indicating they often concede plenty against dominant opponents but can also generate their own when chasing the game. With Bayern likely to attack relentlessly and Frankfurt forced to defend deep yet counter when possible, a total around the predicted corners value feels aligned with both teams’ styles.
Shots Prediction
Recent Shots Trends
Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.
Bayern Munich
Ein Frankfurt
Shots Probability Distribution
Distribution
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
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Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this game is 28.05, setting the shots prediction close to 28 attempts combined. Bayern’s last three matches saw shot totals of 11-14, 27-9 and 13-14, which regularly pushes games into the mid‑20s or higher for total attempts. Frankfurt’s recent shot figures (12-20, 3-11, 11-11) show they both allow and generate a decent volume, especially against stronger sides where they spend long spells without the ball. Combining Bayern’s huge attacking xG (3.892 per game) with Frankfurt’s high xG conceded (2.33), it’s reasonable to expect a busy afternoon for both goalkeepers and defences, in line with the expected shots number.
Final Prediction
Bayern’s edge comes from their devastating attack, superior xG profile, and home advantage, all against a Frankfurt side that has been defensively vulnerable in recent weeks. While Frankfurt can threaten on the break and have shown they can score, sustaining that against the league’s most potent frontline is a different challenge. The key factor to watch will be how long Frankfurt’s back line can withstand Bayern’s early pressure; if the champions score first, the scoreline could quickly reflect the one‑sided probabilities.
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