Bundesliga 2025-2026: Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart Prediction - 19 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Bayern Munich

Home Team
79%
VS

Stuttgart

Away Team
9%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5: 75%
Under 2.5: 25%
Goal: 68%
No Goal: 32%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 27.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 29 24 4 1 105 27 78 76
2 Dortmund 29 19 7 3 60 29 31 64
3 Stuttgart 29 17 5 7 60 38 22 56
4 RB Leipzig 29 17 5 7 56 36 20 56
5 Leverkusen 29 15 7 7 59 39 20 52
6 Hoffenheim 29 15 6 8 57 43 14 51
7 Ein Frankfurt 29 11 9 9 54 54 0 42
8 Freiburg 29 11 7 11 42 47 -5 40
9 Mainz 29 8 9 12 35 44 -9 33
10 Augsburg 29 9 6 14 36 53 -17 33
11 Union Berlin 29 8 8 13 33 50 -17 32
12 Hamburg 29 7 10 12 32 45 -13 31
13 FC Koln 29 7 9 13 43 50 -7 30
14 M'gladbach 29 7 9 13 35 49 -14 30
15 Werder Bremen 29 7 7 15 32 52 -20 28
16 St Pauli 29 6 7 16 25 50 -25 25
17 Wolfsburg 29 5 6 18 39 65 -26 21
18 Heidenheim 29 4 7 18 32 64 -32 19

Recent Trends

Bayern Munich W W W D W

  • Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 4 - 1)

Stuttgart W L W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Mainz (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bayern Munich

xG (avg) 4.12
xGA (avg) 1.53
Clean Sheets 2

Stuttgart

xG (avg) 2.14
xGA (avg) 2.04
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Bayern Munich are clear favourites here, with a 79.0% probability of victory against a Stuttgart side given just a 9.0% chance, and a 12.0% likelihood of a draw. The leaders sit top of the Bundesliga on 76 points, while Stuttgart are having an excellent season of their own in 3rd place with 56 points. The model also points strongly towards an open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 75.0%.

Match Analysis

Bayern arrive in ruthless form, with three straight wins: 5-0 at St Pauli, 3-2 at Freiburg and 4-0 at home to Union Berlin. They’ve scored 12 goals across those games and dominated territorially, posting 31 shots and 12 corners against Union alone. Over their last five matches they are averaging 3.4 goals scored and only 1.2 conceded, backed up by a huge 4.116 expected goals (xG) per game – numbers that underline why they’re top of the table with 105 goals scored and a +78 goal difference. Stuttgart, third in the standings, come in with two wins and one defeat from their last three outings. They thrashed Hamburg 4-0 and won 5-2 away at Augsburg, either side of a 0-2 home loss to title-chasing Dortmund – a reminder they can still be punished by elite opposition. Their recent metrics show an enterprising but slightly vulnerable side: 2.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded on average over the last five, with xG for at 2.142 and xG against at 2.044, suggesting open, end-to-end football rather than control.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Bayern Munich
Goals in last 5 matches
Stuttgart
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction at 75.0% fits both teams’ recent patterns. All three of Bayern’s latest matches sailed over 2.5 goals (5-0, 3-2, 4-0), while two of Stuttgart’s last three did the same (4-0, 0-2, 5-2). With Bayern’s attack producing 3.4 goals per game from 4.116 xG and Stuttgart at 2.8 goals from 2.142 xG, and both conceding around or above one per match, the balance of goals and chances firmly supports backing over rather than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Bayern Munich
Corners in last 5 matches
Stuttgart
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total for the corners prediction is 9.67, in line with two proactive, front-foot teams. Bayern’s last three have produced 7, 13 and 13 total corners (they earned 4, 8 and 12 themselves), reflecting sustained pressure and frequent wide attacks. Stuttgart’s games have seen 10, 7 and 7 corners (with 8, 5 and 5 in their favour), so the predicted corners around the 10 mark looks realistic for two sides who like to push full-backs on and keep opponents penned in.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Bayern Munich
Shots in last 5 matches
Stuttgart
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 27.7, which again matches what both teams have been generating. Bayern’s last three outings featured 20, 21 and 31 attempts in their favour, while Stuttgart recorded 23, 13 and 13 shots in their recent fixtures. With Bayern’s high xG output and Stuttgart creating over two expected goals per match, this shots prediction points towards a busy night for both goalkeepers and plenty of action around both penalty areas.

Final Prediction

Bayern’s superior firepower, deeper underlying numbers and relentless recent form give them a clear edge over a brave but more open Stuttgart side. The key factor to watch will be whether Stuttgart can withstand Bayern’s sustained attacking waves; if they can’t, the league leaders’ efficiency in front of goal is likely to decide this top‑of‑the‑table clash.

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