Bundesliga 2025-2026: Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin Prediction - 21 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Bayern Munich

Home Team
90%
VS

Union Berlin

Away Team
4%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 70%
Under 2.5: 30%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 28.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 26 21 4 1 93 25 68 67
2 Dortmund 26 17 7 2 55 26 29 58
3 Hoffenheim 26 15 5 6 54 34 20 50
4 Stuttgart 26 15 5 6 51 34 17 50
5 RB Leipzig 26 14 5 7 48 35 13 47
6 Leverkusen 26 13 6 7 49 33 16 45
7 Ein Frankfurt 26 10 8 8 49 49 0 38
8 Freiburg 26 9 7 10 37 43 -6 34
9 Union Berlin 26 8 7 11 31 42 -11 31
10 Augsburg 26 9 4 13 31 45 -14 31
11 Hamburg 26 7 9 10 29 37 -8 30
12 M'gladbach 26 7 7 12 30 43 -13 28
13 Mainz 26 6 9 11 31 41 -10 27
14 FC Koln 26 6 7 13 35 44 -9 25
15 Werder Bremen 26 6 7 13 29 47 -18 25
16 St Pauli 26 6 6 14 23 42 -19 24
17 Wolfsburg 26 5 6 15 35 56 -21 21
18 Heidenheim 26 3 5 18 24 58 -34 14

Recent Trends

Bayern Munich D W W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Dortmund (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 3 - 0)

Union Berlin W L L W L

  • Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Hamburg (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bayern Munich

xG (avg) 3.64
xGA (avg) 1.70
Clean Sheets 1

Union Berlin

xG (avg) 1.29
xGA (avg) 1.96
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Bayern Munich are overwhelming favourites here, with a 90.0% probability of a home win against Union Berlin’s slim 4.0% chance, matching the prediction of a Bayern victory. The model also leans strongly towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 70.0%. It’s a meeting between the league leaders (Bayern 1st with 67 points) and a mid-table Union side sitting 9th on 31 points.

Match Analysis

Bayern arrive in typically ruthless domestic form: a 3–2 away win at Dortmund, a 4–1 home victory over M’gladbach, and a 1–1 draw at Leverkusen underline both their attacking power and their ability to control big games. Across their last five matches they’ve averaged 4.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, backed by a hefty 3.64 expected goals created per game. Even with only one clean sheet in that spell, their attack is so productive that they rarely need perfection at the back to win. Union Berlin’s recent run has been far more mixed. A gritty 1–0 win away at Freiburg is sandwiched between a 1–4 home loss to Werder Bremen and a narrow 0–1 defeat at M’gladbach. Their last five games show an average of 1.0 goal scored and 1.6 conceded, with 1.29 xG created and 1.964 xG allowed per match. That points to a team that often sits second best in chance creation and relies on defensive organisation and the occasional clean sheet (two in the last five) to stay competitive – a risky recipe at the Allianz Arena.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Bayern Munich
Goals in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours an over 2.5 prediction with a 70.0% probability, and the recent scorelines support that. Two of Bayern’s last three league games have gone over 2.5 goals (4–1 vs M’gladbach, 3–2 at Dortmund), with only the 1–1 at Leverkusen staying under. Union, by contrast, have been in low-scoring encounters, with two of their last three matches under 2.5 (1–0 at Freiburg, 0–1 at M’gladbach) and only the 1–4 loss to Werder going over. Even so, Bayern’s blend of 4.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average, plus 3.64 xG for versus 1.704 xG against, suggests a high-tempo, chance-heavy game whenever they play. Union’s more modest attacking numbers (1.0 for, 1.6 against) and nearly 2.0 xG conceded per match indicate they tend to allow good opportunities – exactly what you don’t want away to the most prolific attack in the league.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Bayern Munich
Corners in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.68 total, pointing towards a match with a steady but not extreme number of set-piece situations. Bayern’s last three games produced corner counts of 1–4, 7–1 and 2–5, showing that when they dominate at home, they can rack up plenty of corners through sustained pressure. Union have consistently conceded more corners than they win – 2–6 at Freiburg, 1–3 against Werder, 2–6 at M’gladbach – which fits a pattern of defending deep and allowing opponents territory. Given Bayern’s front-foot style and Union’s tendency to absorb pressure, it’s reasonable to expect the predicted corners figure to be driven mainly by the hosts, especially down the flanks and from second-phase attacks.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Bayern Munich
Shots in last 5 matches
Union Berlin
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 28.41, which aligns with Bayern’s habit of turning dominance into frequent efforts on goal. Their recent shot numbers read 11 at Leverkusen, 18 at home to M’gladbach and 14 at Dortmund – always in or around double figures, often higher when they control possession. Union, meanwhile, have been heavily out-shot: 9–19 at Freiburg, 9–15 versus Werder and 6–21 at M’gladbach, reinforcing the idea that they spend long stretches without the ball. That pattern marries well with the xG profiles: Bayern’s 3.64 xG per game implies a large volume of good-quality chances, while Union’s 1.964 xG conceded suggests opponents generate plenty of looks at goal. The shots prediction therefore points to Bayern carrying the bulk of the 28.41 expected shots, with Union mostly limited to counters and isolated breaks.

Final Prediction

Bayern’s edge is clear: league-leading form, a ferocious attack, and underlying numbers that dwarf Union’s on both ends of the pitch. Union’s compact approach and occasional clean sheet give them a puncher’s chance, but the balance of probability lies heavily with the champions. The key factor to watch will be how long Union can resist Bayern’s relentless pressure; if the early storm brings a goal, this could quickly turn into the kind of open, high-scoring contest the metrics are pointing towards.

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