Bundesliga 2025-2026: Dortmund vs Bayern Munich Prediction - 28 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Dortmund

Home Team
4%
VS

Bayern Munich

Away Team
91%
Draw: 5%
Over 2.5: 64%
Under 2.5: 36%
Goal: 62%
No Goal: 38%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 27.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 23 19 3 1 85 21 64 60
2 Dortmund 23 15 7 1 49 22 27 52
3 Hoffenheim 23 14 4 5 49 30 19 46
4 Stuttgart 23 13 4 6 44 32 12 43
5 RB Leipzig 23 12 5 6 44 32 12 41
6 Leverkusen 22 12 3 7 43 28 15 39
7 Freiburg 23 9 6 8 34 37 -3 33
8 Ein Frankfurt 23 8 7 8 46 49 -3 31
9 Union Berlin 23 7 7 9 29 37 -8 28
10 Augsburg 23 8 4 11 28 41 -13 28
11 Hamburg 22 6 8 8 25 32 -7 26
12 FC Koln 23 6 6 11 33 39 -6 24
13 Mainz 23 5 7 11 26 38 -12 22
14 M'gladbach 23 5 7 11 26 39 -13 22
15 Wolfsburg 23 5 5 13 33 49 -16 20
16 St Pauli 23 5 5 13 22 40 -18 20
17 Werder Bremen 23 4 7 12 23 44 -21 19
18 Heidenheim 23 3 5 15 22 51 -29 14

Recent Trends

Dortmund D W W W W

  • Last Match: D vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Mainz (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 3 - 0)

Bayern Munich W W W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Hamburg (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Dortmund

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.49
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.17
# Clean Sheets: 2

Bayern Munich

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.86
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.70
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Bayern Munich are clear favourites here, with a 91.0% probability of an away win against Dortmund’s 4.0% chance, despite this being a clash between the league leaders and the second-placed side. The over 2.5 prediction is also strong, with a 64.0% probability of at least three goals in the game. Bayern sit top with 60 points from 23 matches, while Dortmund trail by eight points in second on 52.

Match Analysis

Dortmund come into this Klassiker unbeaten in their last three league outings: a 2-2 draw away at RB Leipzig followed by a 4-0 home win over Mainz and a 2-1 victory at Wolfsburg. That run shows a balance of solid attacking output and improving control, with 4, 4 and 3 total goals respectively. The advanced numbers back up their threat: an average of 3.0 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded in the last five, supported by 2.494 expected goals (xG) for and 1.172 xG against per game, plus two clean sheets. Bayern, though, look even more ruthless. They’ve won their last three: 3-2 at home to Eintracht Frankfurt, 3-0 away at Werder Bremen, and a thumping 5-1 against Hoffenheim. That’s 11 goals scored and just 3 conceded in those fixtures, with total goals of 5, 3 and 6. Their recent averages show 3.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match over the last five, with 2.862 xG for and 1.698 xG against, underlining a side that constantly creates chances and accepts the risk of giving some up. In a top-of-the-table battle, Bayern’s slightly higher attacking output and volume of chances give them a clear statistical edge.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Dortmund
Goals in last 5 matches
Bayern Munich
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction with a 64.0% chance of three or more goals. All three of Dortmund’s recent matches went over 2.5 total goals (4, 4 and 3), while two of Bayern’s three also went over 2.5 (5 and 6, with only the 3-0 win just meeting the line). With Dortmund averaging 3.0 scored and 0.8 conceded, and Bayern at 3.4 scored and 0.8 conceded, backed by strong xG figures for both sides, the data strongly supports a high-scoring encounter rather than anything resembling under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Dortmund
Corners in last 5 matches
Bayern Munich
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners for this match stand at 9.82 in total, pointing to a game with steady but not extreme set-piece volume. Dortmund’s last three have produced 8, 9 and 12 total corners, while Bayern’s have seen 10, 6 and 11, all consistent with high-possession, front-foot teams. Given both sides like to attack and have consistently forced their opponents deep, this corners prediction fits two proactive styles that naturally generate predicted corners via sustained pressure in wide areas.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Dortmund
Shots in last 5 matches
Bayern Munich
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 27.62, which aligns with both teams’ recent output. Dortmund’s last three games featured 24, 24 and 33 combined shots, while Bayern’s produced 33, 25 and 36, all showing matches with plenty of attempts at goal. With both clubs posting strong xG numbers (2.494 for Dortmund and 2.862 for Bayern per match in the last five), this shots prediction reflects two attacks that regularly turn possession into efforts on goal.

Final Prediction

Bayern’s superior attacking volume, higher recent xG, and more convincing winning streak explain why they are such heavy favourites despite Dortmund’s good form and second-place standing. The key factor to watch will be how Dortmund’s improved defence copes with Bayern’s relentless chance creation; if they can’t limit the shot count, the league leaders’ firepower is likely to decide the Klassiker.

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