Bundesliga 2025-2026: Dortmund vs Ein Frankfurt Prediction - 8 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Dortmund

Home Team
61%
VS

Ein Frankfurt

Away Team
19%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 27.6
Expected Spread: +1.0

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 32 26 5 1 116 35 81 83
2 Dortmund 32 20 7 5 65 32 33 67
3 RB Leipzig 32 19 5 8 63 42 21 62
4 Leverkusen 32 17 7 8 66 43 23 58
5 Stuttgart 32 17 7 8 66 46 20 58
6 Hoffenheim 32 17 7 8 64 48 16 58
7 Freiburg 32 12 8 12 45 53 -8 44
8 Ein Frankfurt 32 11 10 11 57 60 -3 43
9 Augsburg 32 11 7 14 42 56 -14 40
10 Mainz 32 9 10 13 41 50 -9 37
11 M'gladbach 32 8 11 13 37 50 -13 35
12 Hamburg 32 8 10 14 36 51 -15 34
13 Union Berlin 32 8 9 15 37 57 -20 33
14 FC Koln 32 7 11 14 47 55 -8 32
15 Werder Bremen 32 8 8 16 37 57 -20 32
16 Wolfsburg 32 6 8 18 42 67 -25 26
17 St Pauli 32 6 8 18 27 55 -28 26
18 Heidenheim 32 5 8 19 38 69 -31 23

Recent Trends

Dortmund L W L L W

  • Last Match: L vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 0)

Ein Frankfurt L D L W D

  • Last Match: L vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Dortmund

xG (avg) 2.82
xGA (avg) 1.02
Clean Sheets 2

Ein Frankfurt

xG (avg) 1.34
xGA (avg) 1.82
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Dortmund are strong favourites at home, with a 61.0% chance of victory against Eintracht Frankfurt’s 19.0%, and the model pointing clearly to a home win. The game leans towards an over 2.5 prediction with a 62.0% probability of three or more goals. In the table, Dortmund sit 2nd on 67 points, chasing Champions League security, while Frankfurt are 8th on 43 points and still eyeing a late push upwards.

Match Analysis

Dortmund’s last three matches have been inconsistent but generally positive in underlying performance. They dismantled Freiburg 4-0 at home, dominating both corners (5-0) and shots (17-7), but slipped to narrow away defeats at Hoffenheim (1-2) and M’gladbach (0-1). Over their last five games they’ve averaged 2.2 goals scored and only 1.2 conceded, backed by an impressive 2.818 expected goals created and just 1.022 expected goals allowed, plus two clean sheets. That profile suggests a side that regularly creates enough to win and usually defends solidly. Frankfurt arrive in Dortmund on a tougher run: two defeats and a draw from their last three. They lost 1-2 at home to Hamburg and 1-3 at home to RB Leipzig, either side of a 1-1 draw at Augsburg. Those results reflect their recent numbers: 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average across the last five, with 1.34 xG for and a relatively high 1.818 xG against, and no clean sheets in that span. They are competitive in games, but opponents are consistently finding chances against them.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Dortmund
Goals in last 5 matches
Ein Frankfurt
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 62.0% makes sense given both teams’ recent patterns and Dortmund’s attacking profile. Two of Dortmund’s last three matches finished over 2.5 goals (4-0 vs Freiburg, 1-2 vs Hoffenheim), with only the 0-1 at M’gladbach staying under. Frankfurt have seen two of their last three also go over 2.5 (1-2 vs Hamburg, 1-3 vs Leipzig), with only the 1-1 at Augsburg under. Dortmund’s 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, alongside 2.818 xG for, point towards an open contest where a low-scoring, under 2.5 scenario looks less likely.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Dortmund
Corners in last 5 matches
Ein Frankfurt
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.54, pointing towards a game with around 9–10 corners overall. Dortmund’s last three have produced modest corner counts: 1-1 at M’gladbach, 5-0 vs Freiburg and 3-4 at Hoffenheim – they tend to rack them up at home when on the front foot. Frankfurt’s recent figures (9-4 vs Hamburg, 7-9 at Augsburg, 4-6 vs Leipzig) show they are involved in high-corner matches, reflecting an open style with plenty of attacking phases. This supports a corners prediction in line with the model’s expected corners, as both sides like to attack and shoot from wide areas.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Dortmund
Shots in last 5 matches
Ein Frankfurt
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction stands at 27.6 total attempts, indicating a lively attacking game. Dortmund’s last three have seen them take 6, 17 and 8 shots respectively, while allowing 12, 7 and 13 – usually outshooting opponents at home, even if more balanced away. Frankfurt have been involved in shot-heavy contests, with shot counts of 8-9 vs Hamburg, 19-17 at Augsburg, and 16-19 vs Leipzig. Combined with Dortmund’s high xG and Frankfurt’s xG conceded, the expected shots figure is consistent with two sides willing to pull the trigger frequently.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Dortmund wins by X goals. Negative = Ein Frankfurt wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Dortmund vs Ein Frankfurt with expected spread of +1.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Dortmund vs Ein Frankfurt
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Dortmund -1.02, meaning the expected spread has the home side winning by roughly a goal. Dortmund’s last three show a net goal difference of +1 (4-0, 1-2, 0-1), while Frankfurt sit at -3 over the same period (1-2, 1-1, 1-3). With Dortmund’s 65 goals for and only 32 against across the season, and Frankfurt’s negative goal difference (-3, 57 scored and 60 conceded), the expected spread aligns with the 61.0% home-win probability and a likely margin of one to two goals.

Final Prediction

Dortmund’s superior recent xG numbers, defensive solidity, and home advantage give them the clear edge over an inconsistent Frankfurt side that has struggled to keep clean sheets. Frankfurt’s ability to generate shots means they can threaten, but the balance of chances and defensive stability heavily favours the hosts. Key to watch will be whether Frankfurt can limit Dortmund’s supply line in the final third; if not, the predicted home win and over 2.5 goals are likely to land.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel