Bundesliga 2025-2026: Dortmund vs Hamburg Prediction - 21 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Dortmund

Home Team
77%
VS

Hamburg

Away Team
10%
Draw: 13%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 25.3

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 26 21 4 1 93 25 68 67
2 Dortmund 26 17 7 2 55 26 29 58
3 Hoffenheim 26 15 5 6 54 34 20 50
4 Stuttgart 26 15 5 6 51 34 17 50
5 RB Leipzig 26 14 5 7 48 35 13 47
6 Leverkusen 26 13 6 7 49 33 16 45
7 Ein Frankfurt 26 10 8 8 49 49 0 38
8 Freiburg 26 9 7 10 37 43 -6 34
9 Union Berlin 26 8 7 11 31 42 -11 31
10 Augsburg 26 9 4 13 31 45 -14 31
11 Hamburg 26 7 9 10 29 37 -8 30
12 M'gladbach 26 7 7 12 30 43 -13 28
13 Mainz 26 6 9 11 31 41 -10 27
14 FC Koln 26 6 7 13 35 44 -9 25
15 Werder Bremen 26 6 7 13 29 47 -18 25
16 St Pauli 26 6 6 14 23 42 -19 24
17 Wolfsburg 26 5 6 15 35 56 -21 21
18 Heidenheim 26 3 5 18 24 58 -34 14

Recent Trends

Dortmund W W L D W

  • Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Mainz (Goals: 4 - 0)

Hamburg D W L L D

  • Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Dortmund

xG (avg) 2.48
xGA (avg) 1.58
Clean Sheets 2

Hamburg

xG (avg) 1.07
xGA (avg) 1.70
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Dortmund are clear favourites at home, with a 77.0% probability of victory against a Hamburg side given just a 10.0% chance, and a 13.0% likelihood of a draw. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 59.0%. In the table, Dortmund sit 2nd on 58 points chasing Bayern, while Hamburg are 11th on 30 points, closer to mid‑table safety than the European spots.

Match Analysis

Dortmund come into this with confidence despite that narrow 3-2 home defeat to Bayern. Before that, they beat Augsburg 2-0 at home and edged FC Köln 2-1 away, showing they can win both in control and in tighter contests. Their attack is in strong form: 2.8 goals scored on average over the last five games, backed up by 2.478 expected goals, suggests their forward play is consistently creating good chances rather than relying on finishing streaks. Hamburg’s recent run is steadier but less explosive. They’ve drawn 1-1 with Köln, edged Wolfsburg 2-1 away, and lost 1-0 at home to Leverkusen. That’s only three goals scored in their last three, and they’ve not kept a single clean sheet in their last five matches. The underlying numbers are a concern: they concede 1.704 xG on average per game over that span, more than double their own 1.07 xG going forward. Against a top‑two attack, that imbalance could be decisive.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Dortmund
Goals in last 5 matches
Hamburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 59.0% is supported by Dortmund’s recent scorelines: two of their last three matches (2-1 vs Köln, 3-2 vs Bayern) have gone over 2.5 goals, with only the 2-0 win over Augsburg staying under. Hamburg have been tighter, with just one of their last three (the 2-1 win at Wolfsburg) going over, and two finishing under 2.5. Even so, Dortmund’s average of 2.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, plus Hamburg’s defensive xG against at 1.704, points towards a game where the home side alone can push this line over rather than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Dortmund
Corners in last 5 matches
Hamburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 10.09, right in line with what both sides have produced recently. Dortmund’s last three games have seen 14, 13 and 7 corners respectively, with them racking up 12 against Augsburg and 5 against Bayern, showing how their attacking width and volume of attacks can force set-piece situations. Hamburg games have also been corner-heavy, with totals of 9, 10 and 9, even if they often concede more than they take. Given Dortmund’s dominance at home and Hamburg’s tendency to soak up pressure, a double‑figure count for predicted corners is logical.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Dortmund
Shots in last 5 matches
Hamburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 25.29 suggests a lively contest in and around both boxes. Dortmund’s last three matches have featured 23, 27 and 24 total shots, with them generally out‑shooting or at least matching opponents thanks to that 2.478 xG attacking profile. Hamburg’s games have seen 15, 24 and 24 shots, and they regularly allow double‑digit attempts, in line with their 1.704 xG conceded. Put together, these trends fit neatly with a shots prediction in the mid‑20s for total expected shots.

Final Prediction

Dortmund’s edge lies in the balance of power at both ends: a top‑class attack backed by strong xG numbers facing a Hamburg defence that gives up too many chances and hasn’t kept a clean sheet in five. With a 77.0% win probability and home advantage, they are rightly expected to control the game. The key factor to watch will be how quickly Dortmund can turn territorial dominance into goals; if they score early, Hamburg’s more modest attacking output may not be enough to keep up.

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