Bundesliga 2025-2026: Dortmund vs Leverkusen Prediction - 11 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Dortmund

Home Team
55%
VS

Leverkusen

Away Team
24%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 64%
Under 2.5: 36%
Goal: 63%
No Goal: 37%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 25.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 28 23 4 1 100 27 73 73
2 Dortmund 28 19 7 2 60 28 32 64
3 RB Leipzig 28 16 5 7 55 36 19 53
4 Stuttgart 28 16 5 7 56 38 18 53
5 Hoffenheim 28 15 5 8 55 41 14 50
6 Leverkusen 28 14 7 7 58 39 19 49
7 Ein Frankfurt 28 10 9 9 52 53 -1 39
8 Freiburg 28 10 7 11 41 47 -6 37
9 Mainz 28 8 9 11 35 43 -8 33
10 Union Berlin 28 8 8 12 32 47 -15 32
11 Augsburg 28 9 5 14 34 51 -17 32
12 Hamburg 28 7 10 11 32 41 -9 31
13 M'gladbach 28 7 9 12 35 48 -13 30
14 Werder Bremen 28 7 7 14 31 49 -18 28
15 FC Koln 28 6 9 13 40 49 -9 27
16 St Pauli 28 6 7 15 25 45 -20 25
17 Wolfsburg 28 5 6 17 38 63 -25 21
18 Heidenheim 28 3 7 18 29 63 -34 16

Recent Trends

Dortmund W W W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 3)

Leverkusen W D D D W

  • Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 6 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Heidenheim (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Freiburg (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Dortmund

xG (avg) 3.19
xGA (avg) 1.72
Clean Sheets 2

Leverkusen

xG (avg) 1.75
xGA (avg) 1.43
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Dortmund are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 55.0% chance of victory against Leverkusen’s 24.0% and a 22.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction on goals at 64.0%, suggesting an open contest. In the table, Dortmund sit 2nd on 64 points, while Leverkusen are 6th with 49 points and pushing to stay in the European race.

Match Analysis

Dortmund come into this clash on a three-game winning streak, beating Stuttgart 2-0 away before home victories over Hamburg (3-2) and Augsburg (2-0). Those results show a side that can grind out clean sheets but also trade punches in more chaotic matches, as seen in the five-goal thriller against Hamburg. Their recent attacking production is strong: 2.8 goals scored on average in the last five games, backed up by an impressive 3.188 expected goals, underlining that their chance creation is no fluke. Leverkusen’s last three outings have been more erratic but always eventful: a 6-3 demolition of Wolfsburg, followed by a 3-3 draw at Heidenheim and a tight 1-1 at home to Bayern Munich. They’ve averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded across the last five, with 1.754 xG for and 1.43 xG against, suggesting a more balanced profile but one that still leaves space at the back. Dortmund’s slightly higher attacking xG and recent defensive tightening (two clean sheets in five) give the hosts a statistical edge, but Leverkusen’s ability to create against Bayern hints they can trouble anyone.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Dortmund
Goals in last 5 matches
Leverkusen
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for an over 2.5 prediction with a 64.0% probability, and the recent scorelines back it up. Two of Dortmund’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Hamburg, 2-0 and 2-0 in the others), while all three of Leverkusen’s recent fixtures have cleared that line in style: 6-3, 3-3 and 1-1. With Dortmund averaging 2.8 scored and 1.4 conceded, and Leverkusen at 1.6 for and 1.6 against, plus both teams’ xG numbers above 1.7 and 1.4 respectively, the attacking patterns strongly support goals rather than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Dortmund
Corners in last 5 matches
Leverkusen
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total for this match is 9.35, pointing towards a lively but not extreme count. Dortmund’s last three games produced corner figures of 2-5, 11-3 and 12-2, showing that at home they tend to rack up a high number of deliveries from wide areas. Leverkusen have also been corner-heavy, with 12-2, 5-2 and 4-1 in their last three, again reflecting aggressive attacking play. Given both sides like to push full-backs on and shoot from good crossing zones, a corners prediction around that 9–10 range fits the way these teams attack.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Dortmund
Shots in last 5 matches
Leverkusen
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.13, consistent with two front-foot teams who rarely sit back. Dortmund’s last three matches saw them take 5, 24 and 16 shots, while holding opponents to 13, 4 and 7 respectively, suggesting a strong control of shot volume at home. Leverkusen have fired 25, 14 and 21 efforts in their last three and allowed 11, 9 and 11, which aligns with their xG profile and supports a high shots prediction overall. With both sides creating over 1.7 and 1.75 xG recently, a match with plenty of attempts on goal is the logical expectation.

Final Prediction

Dortmund’s superior league position, stronger recent win streak and slightly better attacking and defensive metrics give them the edge in this encounter. Leverkusen’s ability to generate chances means they are unlikely to go quietly, but their tendency to concede in open games could be costly. The key factor to watch will be Dortmund’s attack at home against Leverkusen’s vulnerable back line – if the hosts find their rhythm early, Leverkusen may be forced into a high-risk shootout on Dortmund’s terms.

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