Bundesliga 2025-2026: Dortmund vs Mainz Prediction - 13 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Dortmund

Home Team
89%
VS

Mainz

Away Team
5%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 62%
No Goal: 38%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.7

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 21 17 3 1 79 19 60 54
2 Dortmund 21 14 6 1 43 20 23 48
3 Hoffenheim 21 13 3 5 44 28 16 42
4 RB Leipzig 21 12 3 6 40 28 12 39
5 Stuttgart 21 12 3 6 38 28 10 39
6 Leverkusen 20 11 3 6 39 27 12 36
7 Freiburg 21 8 6 7 32 33 -1 30
8 Ein Frankfurt 21 7 7 7 41 46 -5 28
9 Union Berlin 21 6 7 8 26 34 -8 25
10 FC Koln 21 6 5 10 30 34 -4 23
11 Hamburg 20 5 7 8 21 29 -8 22
12 M'gladbach 21 5 7 9 25 34 -9 22
13 Augsburg 21 6 4 11 24 39 -15 22
14 Mainz 21 5 6 10 25 33 -8 21
15 Wolfsburg 21 5 4 12 29 44 -15 19
16 Werder Bremen 21 4 7 10 22 39 -17 19
17 St Pauli 21 4 5 12 20 35 -15 17
18 Heidenheim 21 3 4 14 19 47 -28 13

Recent Trends

Dortmund W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 3 - 0)

Mainz W W W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Dortmund

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.35
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.12
# Clean Sheets: 2

Mainz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.38
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 3.40
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Dortmund are strong favourites at home, with an 89.0% probability of victory against Mainz’s 5.0%, and they come into this clash sitting 2nd in the Bundesliga table, while Mainz are down in 14th. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 60.0% and a general “goal” probability of 62.0%. With Dortmund chasing Bayern at the top and Mainz trying to stay clear of the relegation battle, both sides have plenty at stake.

Match Analysis

Dortmund arrive in outstanding form, winning their last three league matches: 2-1 at Wolfsburg, 3-2 at home to Heidenheim, and 3-0 away at Union Berlin. Across those games they’ve shown both attacking fluency and control, racking up 21, 19 and 15 shots respectively. The advanced metrics underline this: over the last five matches they average 2.6 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, with 2.352 expected goals (xG) created and 1.122 xG allowed per game, plus two clean sheets. That combination of high output and relatively tight defending explains why they are firmly in the title race. Mainz, however, come in with momentum of their own after three straight wins: 2-0 against Augsburg, a strong 2-1 away win at RB Leipzig, and 3-1 over Wolfsburg. They’ve mixed efficient finishing with spells of pressure, especially at home where they generated 15 corners and 20 shots against Wolfsburg. Yet the deeper numbers suggest fragility: in their last five, Mainz average just 1.4 goals scored but 2.2 conceded, and while they create 1.38 xG per game, they allow a very high 3.398 xG, with only one clean sheet. That defensive leakage is a worrying sign ahead of a trip to one of the league’s most clinical attacks.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Dortmund
Goals in last 5 matches
Mainz
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours an over 2.5 prediction with a 60.0% probability, and recent scorelines back that up. All 3 of Dortmund’s last games went over 2.5 goals (3, 5 and 3 total goals), while 2 of Mainz’s last 3 were over (3 and 4 goals) and only the 2-0 against Augsburg was under 2.5. Dortmund’s averages of 2.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, plus Mainz’s 1.4 scored and 2.2 conceded, align with their xG profiles to point towards a match with several clear chances.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Dortmund
Corners in last 5 matches
Mainz
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.85, suggesting a contest around the 10-corner mark. Dortmund’s last three games produced corner counts of 8-4, 12-3 and 2-7, showing that their matches can swing between sustained attacking pressure and more clinical, low-corner performances. Mainz, meanwhile, have seen 6-4, 4-5 and a remarkable 15-1 in corners, reflecting a team that can pile on pressure when chasing or controlling games. Given Dortmund’s attacking style and Mainz’s willingness to attack wide, this corners prediction fits a match where both sides look to get the ball into the box frequently.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Dortmund
Shots in last 5 matches
Mainz
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.73, indicating a relatively open game by Bundesliga standards and forming the basis of the shots prediction. Dortmund have fired 21, 19 and 15 shots in their last three, while facing 12, 12 and 10, consistently playing in shot-heavy encounters that reflect their strong xG figures. Mainz’s recent matches have seen them take 10, 11 and 20 shots and face 14, 15 and 7, which matches their profile of creating around 1.38 xG but conceding a lot of opportunities.

Final Prediction

Dortmund’s superior league position, recent winning streak and far stronger underlying metrics give them a clear edge over Mainz despite the visitors’ good run. If Mainz’s defence again allows chances at the level suggested by their 3.398 xG conceded, Dortmund’s attack is well placed to punish them. A key factor to watch will be how Mainz cope with Dortmund’s sustained pressure in the final third, particularly in terms of shots and set-piece situations.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel