Bundesliga 2025-2026: Ein Frankfurt vs Freiburg Prediction - 1 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Ein Frankfurt

Home Team
51%
VS

Freiburg

Away Team
25%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 25.1

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 23 19 3 1 85 21 64 60
2 Dortmund 23 15 7 1 49 22 27 52
3 Hoffenheim 23 14 4 5 49 30 19 46
4 Stuttgart 23 13 4 6 44 32 12 43
5 RB Leipzig 23 12 5 6 44 32 12 41
6 Leverkusen 22 12 3 7 43 28 15 39
7 Freiburg 23 9 6 8 34 37 -3 33
8 Ein Frankfurt 23 8 7 8 46 49 -3 31
9 Union Berlin 23 7 7 9 29 37 -8 28
10 Augsburg 23 8 4 11 28 41 -13 28
11 Hamburg 22 6 8 8 25 32 -7 26
12 FC Koln 23 6 6 11 33 39 -6 24
13 Mainz 23 5 7 11 26 38 -12 22
14 M'gladbach 23 5 7 11 26 39 -13 22
15 Wolfsburg 23 5 5 13 33 49 -16 20
16 St Pauli 23 5 5 13 22 40 -18 20
17 Werder Bremen 23 4 7 12 23 44 -21 19
18 Heidenheim 23 3 5 15 22 51 -29 14

Recent Trends

Ein Frankfurt L W D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 3)

Freiburg W L W L W

  • Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Ein Frankfurt

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.46
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.43
# Clean Sheets: 1

Freiburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.22
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.99
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Eintracht Frankfurt are slight favourites at home with a 51.0% chance of victory, compared to Freiburg’s 25.0% and a 24.0% probability of a draw. The model points to a home win and an over 2.5 goals prediction (53.0% chance) in a clash between the 8th‑placed hosts (31 points) and 7th‑placed Freiburg (33 points), with both sides eyeing the European spots.

Match Analysis

Frankfurt come into this one with mixed but competitive form: a narrow 3-2 defeat away at Bayern, a dominant 3-0 home win over M’gladbach, and a 1-1 draw at Union Berlin. Those results show both their attacking punch and defensive vulnerability, mirrored by their last‑5 averages of 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Their underlying numbers back this up: 1.464 expected goals (xG) for and 1.43 xG against per match, plus just one clean sheet in five, point to a team that regularly creates and concedes chances. Freiburg’s last three outings have been a tight 2-1 home win over M’gladbach, a heavy 3-0 loss at Hoffenheim, and a gritty 1-0 home victory against Werder Bremen. They’ve taken six points from nine, but with goal averages of 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded in their last five games, they often end up in open contests at the back. Their xG profile (1.216 for, 1.99 against) suggests they allow opponents a significant amount of good chances, which is dangerous away to a Frankfurt attack that has already scored 46 league goals.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Ein Frankfurt
Goals in last 5 matches
Freiburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction with a 53.0% probability. Two of Frankfurt’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-2 at Bayern, 3-0 vs M’gladbach), with only the 1-1 at Union staying under. Freiburg, by contrast, have seen two of their last three finish under 2.5 (1-0 vs Bremen, 0-3 at Hoffenheim counted as exactly 3 goals total, and 2-1 vs M’gladbach just over the line). Given Frankfurt’s 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded per game, plus both teams’ xG figures hovering around or above 1.2 for and 1.4–1.99 against, the balance of probabilities favours goals rather than a tight under 2.5 affair.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Ein Frankfurt
Corners in last 5 matches
Freiburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.31, suggesting a steady but not extreme number of set‑piece situations. Frankfurt’s recent games have seen low corner counts from their side (2-8, 2-8, 2-5), indicating that while opponents rack up flags against them, they themselves don’t flood the box with wide deliveries. Freiburg’s last three show slightly more balance (3-3, 6-6, 4-8), consistent with a team that can push forward but also spends time defending. This corners prediction fits a game where both sides attack, but not in a relentless, wing‑heavy style.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Ein Frankfurt
Shots in last 5 matches
Freiburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match stand at 25.14 in total, hinting at a reasonably open contest without becoming a pure shoot‑out. Frankfurt have faced big shot counts recently (24, 20, 11) while producing more modest numbers themselves (9, 12, 3), yet their xG of 1.464 shows they can generate good-quality chances from fewer attempts. Freiburg’s last three saw them take 10, 13, and 7 shots while allowing 12, 25, and 17 – aligning with the shots prediction of a match where both penalty areas see regular action, and where attacking metrics should translate into decent xG at both ends.

Final Prediction

Frankfurt’s edge comes from home advantage, a sharper recent attack, and Freiburg’s tendency to give up high‑quality chances, all reflected in the 51.0% home‑win probability. The key factor to watch will be how Freiburg’s defence copes with Frankfurt’s efficiency in turning limited shots into goals, which could ultimately decide whether the visitors can hold their 7th place or are overtaken on the day.

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