Bundesliga 2025-2026: Ein Frankfurt vs Heidenheim Prediction - 14 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Ein Frankfurt

Home Team
79%
VS

Heidenheim

Away Team
9%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 25.2

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 25 21 3 1 92 24 68 66
2 Dortmund 25 16 7 2 53 26 27 55
3 Hoffenheim 25 15 4 6 53 33 20 49
4 Stuttgart 25 14 5 6 50 34 16 47
5 RB Leipzig 25 14 5 6 48 34 14 47
6 Leverkusen 25 13 5 7 48 32 16 44
7 Ein Frankfurt 25 9 8 8 48 49 -1 35
8 Freiburg 25 9 7 9 37 42 -5 34
9 Augsburg 25 9 4 12 31 43 -12 31
10 Hamburg 25 7 8 10 28 36 -8 29
11 Union Berlin 25 7 7 11 30 42 -12 28
12 M'gladbach 25 6 7 12 28 43 -15 25
13 Werder Bremen 25 6 7 12 29 45 -16 25
14 FC Koln 25 6 6 13 34 43 -9 24
15 Mainz 25 5 9 11 29 41 -12 24
16 St Pauli 25 6 6 13 23 40 -17 24
17 Wolfsburg 25 5 5 15 34 55 -21 20
18 Heidenheim 25 3 5 17 24 57 -33 14

Recent Trends

Ein Frankfurt D W L W D

  • Last Match: D vs St Pauli (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 1)

Heidenheim L L D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Stuttgart (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Hamburg (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Ein Frankfurt

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.49
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.43
# Clean Sheets: 3

Heidenheim

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.54
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.51
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Eintracht Frankfurt are clear favourites here, with a 79.0% probability of a home win against bottom‑placed Heidenheim, who are given just a 9.0% chance. The over 2.5 prediction is also leaning towards goals, with a 56.0% probability of at least three being scored. Frankfurt sit 7th on 35 points, pushing for Europe, while Heidenheim are rooted to the bottom in 18th with only 14 points and a grim goal difference of -33.

Match Analysis

Frankfurt come into this on a relatively solid run: a narrow 3-2 defeat away at leaders Bayern, a professional 2-0 home win over Freiburg, and a goalless draw at St Pauli. That sequence shows defensive improvement – two clean sheets in three – combined with the ability to trade punches with the best. Over their last five games, they’ve averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, backed by 1.494 expected goals (xG) for and 1.426 xG against, underlining a side that generally creates slightly more than it allows. Heidenheim’s recent form tells a different story. They’ve taken just one point from their last three: a 3-3 home thriller with Stuttgart followed by a 0-2 defeat at Werder Bremen and a 2-4 home loss to Hoffenheim. They score in bursts but are consistently open at the back. Across their last five, they average only 0.8 goals scored while conceding 1.8, with a worrying 2.508 xG conceded per game. The xG numbers suggest they do create (1.536 xG for) but are far too porous, which is a dangerous mix away to a side like Frankfurt.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Ein Frankfurt
Goals in last 5 matches
Heidenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction at 56.0%, and the recent scorelines support that tilt. Two of Frankfurt’s last three matches have stayed under 2.5 goals (0-0 vs St Pauli, 2-0 vs Freiburg), with only the 3-2 at Bayern going over, but their five-game averages of 2.0 scored and 1.8 conceded point to plenty of goalmouth action over a slightly longer view. For Heidenheim, two of their last three games have gone over 2.5 (3-3 vs Stuttgart, 2-4 vs Hoffenheim), with only the 0-2 at Bremen underlining their inconsistency in attack. Combined with their 1.536 xG for and 2.508 xG against, this match leans towards an open contest rather than an under 2.5 grind.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Ein Frankfurt
Corners in last 5 matches
Heidenheim
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 9.52, pointing towards a match around the 9–10 corner mark. Frankfurt’s last three produced 7, 11 and 10 total corners respectively, while Heidenheim’s yielded 7, 5 and 7. That pattern fits the idea of two sides willing to attack the flanks: Frankfurt, as the stronger home team, should force Heidenheim back and rack up corners, while the visitors’ tendency to chase games often generates set-piece situations the other way.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Ein Frankfurt
Shots in last 5 matches
Heidenheim
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 25.17 in total, which aligns neatly with both teams’ recent numbers. Frankfurt’s last three saw combined shot counts of 19 (at St Pauli), 19 (vs Freiburg) and a high-tempo 33 at Bayern. Heidenheim’s matches have been similarly open, with 22 shots vs Hoffenheim, 26 at Bremen and 22 against Stuttgart. Given Frankfurt’s 1.494 xG for and Heidenheim’s 2.508 xG against, this shots prediction suggests the hosts should generate enough attempts to turn pressure into goals.

Final Prediction

Frankfurt’s edge comes from their sturdier balance: they create more consistently, defend better, and carry far less relegation pressure than a Heidenheim side leaking chances and goals. With home advantage and superior recent performances, they are rightly favoured to take all three points. The key factor to watch will be how quickly Frankfurt can impose themselves in the final third; if they get early joy against Heidenheim’s fragile back line, this could develop into a dominant home display.

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