Bundesliga 2025-2026: Ein Frankfurt vs M'gladbach Prediction - 14 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Ein Frankfurt

Home Team
67%
VS

M'gladbach

Away Team
15%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 24.5

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 21 17 3 1 79 19 60 54
2 Dortmund 21 14 6 1 43 20 23 48
3 Hoffenheim 21 13 3 5 44 28 16 42
4 RB Leipzig 21 12 3 6 40 28 12 39
5 Stuttgart 21 12 3 6 38 28 10 39
6 Leverkusen 20 11 3 6 39 27 12 36
7 Freiburg 21 8 6 7 32 33 -1 30
8 Ein Frankfurt 21 7 7 7 41 46 -5 28
9 Union Berlin 21 6 7 8 26 34 -8 25
10 FC Koln 21 6 5 10 30 34 -4 23
11 Hamburg 20 5 7 8 21 29 -8 22
12 M'gladbach 21 5 7 9 25 34 -9 22
13 Augsburg 21 6 4 11 24 39 -15 22
14 Mainz 21 5 6 10 25 33 -8 21
15 Wolfsburg 21 5 4 12 29 44 -15 19
16 Werder Bremen 21 4 7 10 22 39 -17 19
17 St Pauli 21 4 5 12 20 35 -15 17
18 Heidenheim 21 3 4 14 19 47 -28 13

Recent Trends

Ein Frankfurt D L L D L

  • Last Match: D vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 3)

M'gladbach D D L D L

  • Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Hamburg (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 5)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Ein Frankfurt

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.40
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.55
# Clean Sheets: 0

M'gladbach

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.96
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.87
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Eintracht Frankfurt are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 67.0% probability of a home win against just 15.0% for M’gladbach. The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction on goals (51.0% chance), in what could be an open contest between mid‑table sides. Frankfurt come into this game 8th with 28 points, while Gladbach sit 12th on 22 points and still looking over their shoulders at the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Frankfurt’s form is worrying on paper – two defeats and a draw in their last three – but the performances have been more competitive than the results suggest. They lost 1-3 at home to both Leverkusen and Hoffenheim, matches where they created similar numbers of shots (11-11 vs Leverkusen, 9-10 vs Hoffenheim) and then drew 1-1 away at Union Berlin in a tight game. Defensively they’ve been leaky, conceding 7 in those three, and they have not kept a clean sheet in their last five matches. Advanced numbers show Frankfurt averaging 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over the last five, with expected goals at 1.398 for and 1.546 against. That suggests they generally create enough to score and are conceding slightly more than the quality of chances against them would normally produce. M’gladbach, meanwhile, are on a three‑game winless run (two draws and a loss), drawing 1-1 with Leverkusen and Werder Bremen and losing 0-3 at home to Stuttgart. Their attack has struggled badly, averaging only 0.6 goals in the last five games, supported by a modest 0.958 xG for per match. At the back they allow 1.6 goals and 1.874 xG against on average, which underlines why they are stuck in the bottom half.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Ein Frankfurt
Goals in last 5 matches
M'gladbach
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for an over 2.5 prediction at 51.0%, but it is a marginal lean rather than a strong one. Two of Frankfurt’s last three games finished over 2.5 (both 1-3 defeats), while Gladbach have seen under 2.5 in two of their last three (1-1, 1-1, 0-3). Frankfurt’s 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game, combined with Gladbach’s 0.6 for and 1.6 against and both sides posting xG close to 1.0 for and 1.5+ against, point towards a match where a couple of good chances either way could tip it over 2.5, but under 2.5 remains a live possibility.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Ein Frankfurt
Corners in last 5 matches
M'gladbach
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.1, suggesting a moderate but not extreme number of set‑piece situations. Frankfurt’s last three games produced 10, 11 and 12 total corners respectively, showing that their home matches against attack‑minded teams often generate frequent delivery into the box. Gladbach’s games have been quieter on that front, with 4, 10 and 5 total corners, reflecting a side that has struggled to sustain pressure. This leads to a corners prediction around the 9–10 mark, with Frankfurt’s more proactive home approach likely to drive the bulk of the predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Ein Frankfurt
Shots in last 5 matches
M'gladbach
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction points to 24.5 expected shots in total, in line with both sides’ recent numbers. Frankfurt’s last three have seen combined shot counts of 14, 22 and 19, while Gladbach’s have produced 19, 25 and 29, indicating that games involving Gladbach can open up even when they don’t score many themselves. Given Frankfurt’s xG of 1.398 and Gladbach’s 0.958 per game, plus both conceding around 1.5–1.9 xG, the expected shots figure fits a match where both teams will generate chances, but with Frankfurt more likely to produce the higher shot volume.

Final Prediction

Frankfurt’s edge comes from home advantage, a more reliable attack, and better underlying numbers, even if their defence has been fragile. Gladbach’s low scoring rate and higher xG conceded make it difficult to see them taking control of the game. A key factor to watch will be whether Gladbach can turn their limited chances into goals; if they can’t, Frankfurt’s more consistent chance creation should eventually decide it.

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